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Fernando Tatis Jr.
RF · RHB · RHP · SDP
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Fernando Tatis Jr., by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-4 | 69% | +41.9% |
| A | 5-2 | 71% | +39.8% |
| B | 5-1 | 83% | +41.7% |
Combined 19-7 · n=26 · ROI +41.3% · avg CLV +1.3 pts · beat close 33%
Matchup
Fernando Tatis Jr. (RHB) vs Mason Adams favors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6Plate Appearancesavg 4.6
Hitsavg 1.5
Singlesavg 1.0
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 2.9
Home Runsavg 0.4
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=669 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-09-14
xStats luck
xwOBA0.375
wOBA0.353
delta−0.022 due
n=664 PA
Spray chart
956 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph blowing outBalls in play956
HR rate4.9%
Hard-hit (95+)51%
Avg exit velo92.1 mph
Ground ball50%
Line drive22%
Fly ball23%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+47.2%significant
n=475 games · 53/341 HR when active
+45.7%significant
n=476 games · 18/91 HR when active
-20.0%small sample
n=480 games · 0/7 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +51% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
3rd time through order vs starter
2.03× HR rate
357 yes / 123 no · 66 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
1.56× HR rate
96 yes / 247 no · 45 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
0.45× HR rate
33 yes / 447 no · 66 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
1.51× HR rate
119 yes / 361 no · 66 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+47%
341 yes / 134 no · 66 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+46%
91 yes / 385 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+24%
234 yes / 224 no · 63 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−23%
239 yes / 241 no · 66 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−20%
7 yes / 473 no · 66 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−19%
73 yes / 394 no · 66 HRs
Playing at home
+19%
246 yes / 234 no · 66 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−18%
58 yes / 346 no · 54 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−18%
48 yes / 428 no · 66 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−17%
56 yes / 424 no · 66 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+14%
16 yes / 463 no · 66 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+13%
56 yes / 420 no · 66 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+12%
180 yes / 287 no · 65 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−11%
98 yes / 380 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−10%
104 yes / 372 no · 66 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−10%
3 yes / 464 no · 66 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−9%
63 yes / 395 no · 65 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−6%
205 yes / 270 no · 65 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
388 yes / 91 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
70 yes / 405 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
229 yes / 249 no · 66 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 480 no · 66 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 475 no · 66 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Fernando Tatis Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.