← BACK TO SLATE
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RF · RHB · RHP · SDP
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 1.5+5.6% edgemodel 73% · grade A
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Fernando Tatis Jr., by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-1 | 88% | +50.0% |
| A | 4-5 | 44% | +13.7% |
| B | 2-0 | 100% | +45.5% |
Combined 13-6 · n=19 · ROI +32.3% · avg CLV +1.3 pts · beat close 29%
Matchup
Fernando Tatis Jr. (RHB) vs Landen Roupp RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Landen Roupp's arsenal × how Fernando Tatis Jr. hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.8Plate Appearancesavg 4.8
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.8
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=497 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-07-31
xStats luck
xwOBA0.355
wOBA0.335
delta−0.020 due
n=492 PA
Spray chart
825 balls in play since 2025Balls in play825
HR rate4.0%
Hard-hit (95+)50%
Avg exit velo91.7 mph
Ground ball50%
Line drive22%
Fly ball23%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+45.5%significant
n=348 games · 15/73 HR when active
-25.2%significant
n=326 games · 5/51 HR when active
-24.9%significant
n=296 games · 4/42 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-09
// TONIGHT
1 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −46% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- +28% HR rate when playing at home.
- −22% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
1.87× HR rate
83 yes / 269 no · 50 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
0.48× HR rate
28 yes / 324 no · 50 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
0.54× HR rate
166 yes / 186 no · 50 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+46%
73 yes / 275 no · 50 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
0.59× HR rate
38 yes / 289 no · 50 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+34%
73 yes / 160 no · 35 HRs
Playing at hometonight
+28%
186 yes / 166 no · 50 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+26%
41 yes / 307 no · 50 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−25%
51 yes / 275 no · 48 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−25%
42 yes / 254 no · 44 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)tonight
−22%
33 yes / 315 no · 50 HRs
// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+19%
180 yes / 160 no · 50 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−19%
31 yes / 321 no · 50 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−17%
77 yes / 273 no · 50 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−15%
44 yes / 300 no · 50 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−14%
128 yes / 219 no · 49 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−13%
4 yes / 348 no · 50 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+13%
16 yes / 335 no · 50 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+11%
203 yes / 141 no · 50 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 325 no · 50 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−5%
278 yes / 73 no · 50 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
87 yes / 261 no · 50 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
169 yes / 181 no · 50 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
156 yes / 185 no · 50 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
0 yes / 352 no · 50 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 352 no · 50 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 344 no · 50 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Fernando Tatis Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.