Jazz Chisholm Jr.

2B · LHB · RHP · NYY

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

CIN

Starter

Rhett Lowder (RHP)

Stadium

Yankee Stadium

Model HR%

20.4%

Model Hits%

70.3%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+9.3% edgemodel 70% · grade S

Why: Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260): +47.1% lift over 60 games · strong vs the Sinker (30% usage, .418 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	70%	+9.3%	60%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	20%	+1.2%	30%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Jazz Chisholm Jr., by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	4-4	50%	-12.5%
A	2-4	33%	+38.4%
B	2-3	40%	-53.8%

Combined 8-11 · n=19 · ROI -7.3% · avg CLV +0.9 pts · beat close 50%

Matchup

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (LHB) vs Rhett Lowder RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Rhett Lowder RHP · season · 51.9 IP · 223 BF

BAA

.235

wOBA

.321

SLG

.342

ISO

.107

WHIP

1.41

HR/9

0.52

BB%

12.1%

17.9%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.1%

HH%

39.8%

FB%

32.3%

HR/FB%

10.0%

Jazz Chisholm Jr. hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	61-267	.228	.397	.169	10	11.9%	31.8%
vs RHP	39-177	.220	.390	.169	7	14.1%	29.9%

Pitch-type matchup

Rhett Lowder's arsenal × how Jazz Chisholm Jr. hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Rhett Lowder throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSinker	30%	92.4	5%	.416
TOPSlider	25%	84.9	31%	.360
TOPFour-Seam	24%	93.1	13%	.355
Changeup	22%	86.1	27%	.348

Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSinker	427	17%	.418	89.9
TOPSlider	463	42%	.363	84.2
TOPFour-Seam	905	25%	.447	92.3
Changeup	428	36%	.313	85.5

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.6

Our model70% OVER+9.3% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1

Plate Appearancesavg 4.1

Hitsavg 0.6

Singlesavg 0.2

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 1.7

Home Runsavg 0.3

Strikeoutsavg 1.2

Walksavg 0.9

Tonight's lines

2026-06-19 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+500	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	70%	+9.3%	-156	+2.2	Sign in
1.5	OVER	B	29%	+3.9%	+300	+2.8	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-0.9%	+1400	+0.8	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	20%	+1.2%	+422	-0.1	Sign in

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	47%	—	+130	+1.8	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	B	48%	—	+130	+0.7	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=303 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-06-17

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	61-267	.228	.397	.169	11	2	10	36	31.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	22-90	.244	.411	.167	2	2	3	7	35.6%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	39-177	.220	.390	.169	9	0	7	29	29.9%
Last 15 days recent form	6-36	.167	.472	.306	0	1	3	9	36.1%
vs CIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	11-40	.275	.425	.150	0	0	2	3	25.0%
@ Yankee Stadium tonight's stadium	767-4056	.189	.453	.264	0	25	340	391	49.4%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.318

wOBA0.331

delta+0.013 hot

n=302 PA

Spray chart

529 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play529

HR rate8.3%

Hard-hit (95+)45%

Avg exit velo89.2 mph

Ground ball41%

Line drive19%

Fly ball32%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+47.1%significant

n=336 games · 16/60 HR when active

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

-30.1%significant

n=334 games · 34/223 HR when active

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+39.9%significant

n=335 games · 18/73 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

3 / 4FAVORABLE

Mostly favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

+41% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
-35% HR rate when rested (2+ days off).
+32% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+47%

60 yes / 276 no · 60 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+41%

118 yes / 218 no · 60 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+40%

73 yes / 262 no · 60 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

0.65× HR rate

22 yes / 313 no · 60 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+33%

140 yes / 196 no · 60 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+32%

152 yes / 184 no · 60 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

−30%

223 yes / 111 no · 60 HRs

// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−19%

138 yes / 198 no · 60 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−18%

6 yes / 330 no · 60 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−17%

105 yes / 225 no · 59 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+16%

36 yes / 298 no · 60 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−12%

55 yes / 249 no · 52 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−12%

256 yes / 79 no · 60 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−11%

51 yes / 260 no · 57 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−9%

45 yes / 291 no · 60 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−7%

210 yes / 119 no · 60 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+7%

177 yes / 52 no · 38 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−6%

174 yes / 156 no · 59 HRs

Playing at home

+6%

168 yes / 168 no · 60 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+5%

96 yes / 222 no · 57 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 335 no · 60 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

neutral

1 yes / 317 no · 57 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

neutral

153 yes / 182 no · 60 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

neutral

203 yes / 133 no · 60 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

neutral

94 yes / 241 no · 60 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

neutral

56 yes / 279 no · 60 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 334 no · 60 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	3B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-18	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-06-17	5	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-06-16	5	1	0	0	1	2	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-14	3	0	0	0	3	0	0-for-0 · 1 R · 2 SB · 3 BB
2026-06-13	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-12	5	1	0	0	1	2	1-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-10	5	1	1	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 3B · 3 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-09	4	1	0	1	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-08	5	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-4 · 1 BB
2026-06-07	4	1	0	1	0	3	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 3 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Jazz Chisholm Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.