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Jazz Chisholm Jr.
2B · LHB · RHP · NYY
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Jazz Chisholm Jr., by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 13-18 | 42% | -21.7% |
| A | 7-10 | 41% | +19.2% |
| B | 3-10 | 23% | -59.4% |
Combined 23-38 · n=61 · ROI -18.4% · avg CLV +0.9 pts · beat close 44%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.8
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=428 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-08-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.297
wOBA0.317
delta+0.020 hot
n=427 PA
Spray chart
600 balls in play since 2025Balls in play600
HR rate8.3%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo89.5 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive19%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+65.0%significant
n=372 games · 21/74 HR when active
-32.6%significant
n=371 games · 42/274 HR when active
+44.8%significant
n=373 games · 16/61 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-28
// TONIGHT
2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Slight favorable lean
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +57% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
- +39% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- −29% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
1.66× HR rate
72 yes / 294 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
1.57× HR rate
158 yes / 209 no · 66 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+48%
63 yes / 304 no · 66 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+39%
149 yes / 218 no · 66 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
0.63× HR rate
24 yes / 342 no · 66 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+35%
146 yes / 221 no · 66 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
−29%
270 yes / 95 no · 66 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−19%
138 yes / 229 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+19%
44 yes / 321 no · 66 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−18%
6 yes / 361 no · 66 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−17%
50 yes / 317 no · 66 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+12%
196 yes / 61 no · 43 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−10%
109 yes / 240 no · 63 HRs
Playing at home
+9%
185 yes / 182 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−9%
227 yes / 132 no · 66 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−8%
59 yes / 271 no · 56 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−8%
279 yes / 87 no · 66 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−7%
197 yes / 164 no · 65 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+7%
56 yes / 310 no · 66 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−7%
59 yes / 282 no · 63 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+5%
123 yes / 238 no · 65 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
213 yes / 154 no · 66 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
1 yes / 348 no · 63 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 366 no · 66 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
97 yes / 269 no · 66 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
175 yes / 191 no · 66 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 365 no · 66 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Jazz Chisholm Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.