José Fermín

LF · RHB · RHP · STL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

WSH

Starter

Jake Irvin (RHP)

Stadium

Busch Stadium

Model HR%

10.2%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+4.3% edgemodel 10% · grade B

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	10%	+4.3%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on José Fermín, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	11-6	65%	+43.2%
A	6-1	86%	+58.3%
B	2-8	20%	-61.4%

Combined 19-15 · n=34 · ROI +15.5% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

José Fermín (RHB) vs Jake Irvin RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Jake Irvin RHP · season · 103.7 IP · 446 BF

BAA

.236

wOBA

.335

SLG

.408

ISO

.172

WHIP

1.43

HR/9

1.48

BB%

12.6%

22.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.7%

HH%

44.6%

FB%

38.6%

HR/FB%

18.9%

José Fermín hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	128-561	.228	.333	.105	10	9.5%	13.7%
vs RHP	81-345	.235	.330	.096	5	9.7%	14.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Jake Irvin's arsenal × how José Fermín hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Jake Irvin throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	31%	92.4	16%	.439
Curveball	28%	77.7	28%	.397
Sinker	22%	91.9	9%	.380
Changeup	7%	85.4	16%	.372
Cutter	6%	87.7	17%	.445
Slider	3%	83.6	18%	.250
Sweeper	2%	81.2	24%	.472
Pitchout	0%	88.8	—	—

José Fermín vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	201	12%	.226	84.4
Curveball	26	20%	.045	77.4
Sinker	143	7%	.298	87.6
Changeup	61	18%	.369	81.2
Cutter	51	18%	.254	82.0
Slider	88	6%	.399	85.7
Sweeper	87	26%	.465	79.3
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.3

Plate Appearancesavg 3.3

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.0

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.4

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	10%	+4.3%	+1625	+0.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=620 PA · 2023-07-09 → 2026-09-16

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	128-561	.228	.333	.105	27	1	10	59	13.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	47-216	.218	.338	.120	11	0	5	22	12.0%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	81-345	.235	.330	.096	16	1	5	37	14.8%
Last 15 days recent form	5-22	.227	.318	.091	2	0	0	3	18.2%
vs Jake Irvin tonight's starting pitcher	1-5	.200	.200	.000	0	0	0	0	0.0%
@ Busch Stadium tonight's stadium	3079-14508	.212	.315	.103	598	0	297	2295	12.4%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.274

wOBA0.277

delta+0.003 hot

n=368 PA

Spray chart

358 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play358

HR rate2.2%

Hard-hit (95+)30%

Avg exit velo85.3 mph

Ground ball41%

Line drive24%

Fly ball24%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	6	3	0	1	0	3-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 BB
2026-09-16	2	0	0	0	0	0-for-2 · 1 RBI
2026-09-15	3	1	1	0	0	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-09-12	5	0	0	2	2	0-for-3 · 1 RBI · 2 BB · 2 K
2026-09-11	5	1	0	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 K
2026-09-09	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-07	2	0	0	0	0	0-for-2 · 1 RBI
2026-09-06	2	1	0	0	0	1-for-2 · 1 R
2026-09-05	2	1	1	0	0	1-for-2 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-04	2	0	0	0	0	0-for-2 · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to José Fermín across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.