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Stadium
Citizens Bank Park
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5 +6.0% edge model 14% · grade A
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Home Runs OVER 0.5 14% +6.0% 10% CAUTION Hits OVER 0.5 59% +2.0% 50% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Esteury Ruiz, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-7 22% -56.9% A 1-5 17% +100.0% B 0-3 0% -100.0%
Combined 3-15 · n=18 · ROI -11.8% · avg CLV -0.0 pts · beat close 40%
Matchup Esteury Ruiz (RHB) vs Cristopher Sánchez LHP favors batter favors pitcher Cristopher Sánchez LHP · season · 154.2 IP · 663 BF
Esteury Ruiz hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 168-715 .235 .352 .117 14 9.3% 26.3% vs LHP 66-262 .252 .435 .183 10 10.3% 27.5%
Pitch-type matchup Cristopher Sánchez's arsenal × how Esteury Ruiz hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Cristopher Sánchez throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Sinker 45% 95.3 13% .363 Changeup 37% 86.4 43% .298 Slider 17% 85.7 33% .382
Esteury Ruiz vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Sinker 40 42% .264 85.4 Changeup 41 43% .269 87.3 Slider 46 52% .290 80.5
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases40% Home Runs10% Singles30% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts80% Walks30% RBIs10% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases50%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 0.7
Our model 59% OVER +2.0% edge PASS
2 vPHI 07-29 2 @NYM 08-01 0 @NYM 08-02 0 @ATL 08-06 1 vLAA 08-07 1 vPIT 08-11 0 vPIT 08-13 0 @CIN 08-14 0 @CIN 08-15 1 @CIN 08-16
L5 40% 2/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 45% 9/20 2026 38% 30/80 2025 36% 5/14
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.3 Plate Appearances avg 3.3
4 4 3 1 4 3 3 1 5 5 Total Bases avg 1.2
3 2 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 1 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.1
2 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 2
Tonight's lines 2026-08-17 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 31% — +190 +5.1 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-133 Hits OVER 1.5+360 Hits OVER 2.5+1600 Home Runs OVER 0.5+1117
Price legs
Splits Career n=788 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-15
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
168-715 .235 .352 .117 36 3 14 73 26.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
66-262 .252 .435 .183 16 1 10 30 27.5% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
102-453 .225 .305 .079 20 2 4 43 25.6% Last 15 days
recent form
2-14 .143 .429 .286 1 0 1 6 42.9% vs PHI
tonight's opponent (full roster)
13-35 .371 .686 .314 5 0 2 0 34.3% @ Citizens Bank Park
tonight's stadium
805-1771 .455 .918 .463 310 0 170 0 36.9%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.289
wOBA 0.352
delta +0.063 hot
n=175 PA
Spray chart 109 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Cristopher Sánchez's mix Balls in play 109
HR rate 6.4%
Hard-hit (95+) 28%
Avg exit velo 82.3 mph
Ground ball 34%
Line drive 23%
Fly ball 27%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-08-16 5 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-5 · 1 SB · 2 K 2026-08-15 5 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-08-14 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-08-13 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-08-11 3 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB · 1 K 2026-08-07 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 1-for-2 · 1 2B · 2 BB 2026-08-06 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-08-02 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-2 · 1 SB · 1 BB 2026-08-01 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 R · 1 SB · 1 K 2026-07-29 4 2 1 0 0 0 2 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 R · 1 SB · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Esteury Ruiz across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.