← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +6.3% edge model 72% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (32% usage, .476 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 72% +6.3% 70% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 16% +1.7% 0% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jonathan Aranda, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 1-2 33% -50.3% A 2-0 100% +214.5% B 3-1 75% +7.9%
Combined 6-3 · n=9 · ROI +34.4% · avg CLV -15.9 pts · beat close 25%
Matchup Jonathan Aranda (LHB) vs Cade Cavalli RHP favors batter favors pitcher Cade Cavalli RHP · season · 82.1 IP · 353 BF
Jonathan Aranda hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 74-285 .260 .425 .165 12 13.9% 27.0% vs RHP 54-199 .271 .487 .216 11 13.1% 24.6%
Pitch-type matchup Cade Cavalli's arsenal × how Jonathan Aranda hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Cade Cavalli throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam32% 96.7 18% .420 TOP Knuckle Curve29% 85.5 39% .355 TOP Sinker17% 96.4 9% .351 Changeup 11% 89.5 34% .251 Sweeper 7% 85.2 22% .326 Cutter 4% 93.7 9% .345 Pitchout 0% 92.1 — —
Jonathan Aranda vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam1013 22% .476 93.6 TOP Knuckle Curve36 46% .399 97.4 TOP Sinker411 14% .475 93.8 Changeup 216 16% .414 87.9 Sweeper 176 24% .395 87.3 Cutter 223 31% .511 93.4 Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases40% Home Runs0% Singles70% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts70% Walks30% RBIs20% Runs Scored20% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases0%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 1.1
Our model 72% OVER +6.3% edge A
0 @MIA 06-06 1 @MIA 06-07 1 vBOS 06-08 1 vBOS 06-10 2 @LAA 06-12 0 @LAA 06-13 2 @LAA 06-14 2 @LAD 06-15 0 @LAD 06-16 2 @LAD 06-17
L5 60% 3/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 70% 14/20 2026 62% 53/85 2025 68% 77/113
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.4 Plate Appearances avg 4.4
5 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 5 Total Bases avg 1.2
0 1 1 1 2 0 3 2 0 2 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.1
3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-19 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 9% — +450 +1.4 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 72% +6.3% -189 +0.0 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 27% +0.3% +280 -3.1 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% -3.4% +1100 -0.8 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 16% +1.7% +605 +1.9 Sign in
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 51% — +110 -1.6 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — B 44% — +154 +0.3 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -189 +280 +1100 +605
Price legs
Splits Career n=331 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-17
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
74-285 .260 .425 .165 11 0 12 46 27.0% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
20-86 .233 .279 .047 1 0 1 16 32.6% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
54-199 .271 .487 .216 10 0 11 30 24.6% Last 15 days
recent form
12-43 .279 .302 .023 1 0 0 6 25.6% @ Tropicana Field
tonight's stadium
205-2152 .095 .095 .000 0 0 0 222 38.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.350
wOBA 0.355
delta +0.005 hot
n=325 PA
Spray chart 481 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Cade Cavalli's mix Balls in play 481
HR rate 5.6%
Hard-hit (95+) 53%
Avg exit velo 93.1 mph
Ground ball 38%
Line drive 28%
Fly ball 30%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-17 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 2-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-16 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-15 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-14 5 2 1 0 0 0 1 2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-13 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-06-12 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-5 · 3 RBI 2026-06-10 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-08 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-07 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-06 5 0 0 0 0 1 3 0-for-4 · 1 BB · 3 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jonathan Aranda across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
