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Hits OVER 0.5 +11.8% edge model 69% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Cutter (35% usage, .394 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 69% +11.8% 90% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 19% +4.3% 10% CAUTION
Matchup Josh Lowe (LHB) vs Aaron Civale RHP favors batter favors pitcher Aaron Civale RHP · season · 71.2 IP · 306 BF
Josh Lowe hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 354-1405 .252 .421 .169 49 7.3% 29.0% vs RHP 302-1148 .263 .450 .187 46 7.6% 28.0%
Pitch-type matchup Aaron Civale's arsenal × how Josh Lowe hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Aaron Civale throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Cutter35% 88.6 20% .353 TOP Curveball21% 77.4 26% .362 Sinker 17% 91.8 11% .385 TOP Four-Seam15% 91.9 15% .428 Slider 6% 83.1 20% .391 Splitter 6% 84.9 14% .292 Sweeper 0% 80.7 0% .000
Josh Lowe vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Cutter232 31% .394 86.1 TOP Curveball147 25% .413 86.1 Sinker 363 15% .345 87.7 TOP Four-Seam829 26% .421 93.4 Slider 330 30% .300 83.0 Splitter 102 24% .246 81.7 Sweeper 165 38% .326 85.4
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits90% Total Bases30% Home Runs10% Singles70% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts60% Walks0% RBIs20% Runs Scored20% Hits + Runs + RBIs90% Stolen Bases10%
90% 9/10 · L10 · avg 1.0
Our model 69% OVER +11.8% edge S
1 vLAD 05-15 1 vLAD 05-16 1 vLAD 05-17 0 vOAK 05-18 1 vOAK 05-19 1 vOAK 05-20 1 vOAK 05-21 1 vBAL 06-24 2 vOAK 06-26 1 vOAK 06-27
L5 100% 5/5 L10 90% 9/10 L20 55% 11/20 2026 47% 25/53 2025 60% 69/115
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 2.9 Plate Appearances avg 2.9
2 2 2 3 2 4 4 4 3 3 Total Bases avg 1.4
1 1 1 0 2 4 1 1 2 1 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.8
0 1 0 1 0 2 1 2 1 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-28 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-133 Hits OVER 1.5+340 Home Runs OVER 0.5+593
Price legs
Splits Career n=1,516 PA · 2023-04-01 → 2026-06-26
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
354-1405 .252 .421 .169 77 7 49 111 29.0% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
52-257 .202 .292 .089 14 0 3 17 33.1% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
302-1148 .263 .450 .187 63 7 46 94 28.0% Last 15 days
recent form
3-7 .429 .429 .000 0 0 0 0 42.9% @ Angel Stadium
tonight's stadium
210-750 .280 .280 .000 0 0 0 0 48.8%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.261
wOBA 0.259
delta −0.002 due
n=159 PA
Spray chart 409 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Aaron Civale's mix Balls in play 409
HR rate 4.6%
Hard-hit (95+) 41%
Avg exit velo 88.3 mph
Ground ball 43%
Line drive 27%
Fly ball 23%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-27 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 SB 2026-06-26 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-24 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 2 K 2026-05-21 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-05-20 4 1 0 0 1 0 2 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 K 2026-05-19 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-2 · 1 2B · 2 RBI 2026-05-18 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-05-17 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-2 2026-05-16 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-2 · 1 K 2026-05-15 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-2
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Josh Lowe across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.