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Jo Adell
RF · RHB · RHP · CLE
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Jo Adell, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 11-6 | 65% | +42.6% |
| A | 6-8 | 43% | -30.4% |
| B | 5-11 | 31% | +45.7% |
Combined 22-25 · n=47 · ROI +21.9% · avg CLV -2.0 pts · beat close 40%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.6
Splits
Career n=1,816 PA · 2023-06-08 → 2026-09-27
xStats luck
xwOBA0.316
wOBA0.305
delta−0.011 due
n=680 PA
Spray chart
854 balls in play since 2025Balls in play854
HR rate7.4%
Hard-hit (95+)48%
Avg exit velo91.0 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive23%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+41.9%significant
n=371 games · 9/32 HR when active
+37.3%significant
n=370 games · 17/73 HR when active
+33.0%significant
n=369 games · 12/51 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-29
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
1.78× HR rate
72 yes / 203 no · 40 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+42%
32 yes / 339 no · 63 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+37%
73 yes / 297 no · 63 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+33%
51 yes / 318 no · 62 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+30%
42 yes / 329 no · 63 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+29%
57 yes / 313 no · 63 HRs
Playing at home
−29%
184 yes / 187 no · 63 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+26%
158 yes / 213 no · 63 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+23%
288 yes / 82 no · 62 HRs
// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+20%
60 yes / 290 no · 62 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−20%
158 yes / 212 no · 63 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+19%
63 yes / 307 no · 63 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+16%
202 yes / 169 no · 63 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−14%
11 yes / 360 no · 63 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−11%
49 yes / 268 no · 53 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−9%
109 yes / 262 no · 63 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−9%
299 yes / 70 no · 62 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+9%
9 yes / 345 no · 59 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+8%
169 yes / 198 no · 62 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+8%
72 yes / 282 no · 59 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−8%
185 yes / 180 no · 62 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
−7%
2 yes / 369 no · 63 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−5%
14 yes / 356 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
199 yes / 166 no · 62 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
66 yes / 305 no · 63 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
146 yes / 225 no · 63 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 369 no · 62 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Jo Adell across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.