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Bo Bichette
3B · RHB · RHP · NYM
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+1.7% edgemodel 9% · grade PASS
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (41% usage, .390 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Bo Bichette, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 15-3 | 83% | +83.1% |
| A | 4-14 | 22% | -59.2% |
| B | 6-14 | 30% | -43.2% |
Combined 25-31 · n=56 · ROI -7.7% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 44%
Matchup
Bo Bichette (RHB) vs Shane Baz RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Shane Baz's arsenal × how Bo Bichette hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.7Plate Appearancesavg 4.7
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 1.0
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.0
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,309 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-13
xStats luck
xwOBA0.327
wOBA0.321
delta−0.006 due
n=653 PA
Spray chart
1034 balls in play since 2025Balls in play1034
HR rate3.7%
Hard-hit (95+)46%
Avg exit velo90.4 mph
Ground ball47%
Line drive28%
Fly ball22%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-15.4%small sample
n=326 games · 16/143 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +31% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
1.67× HR rate
44 yes / 281 no · 41 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.50× HR rate
52 yes / 273 no · 41 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
+31%
250 yes / 75 no · 41 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−21%
17 yes / 308 no · 41 HRs
// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−16%
135 yes / 191 no · 41 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−15%
143 yes / 183 no · 41 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−8%
86 yes / 240 no · 41 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
164 yes / 162 no · 41 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Bo Bichette across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.