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Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
LF · RHB · RHP · ARI
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 0.9
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.0
Splits
Career n=132 PA · 2026-04-18 → 2026-06-24
xStats luck
xwOBA0.299
wOBA0.282
delta−0.017 due
n=132 PA
Spray chart
550 balls in play since 2025Balls in play550
HR rate3.8%
Hard-hit (95+)35%
Avg exit velo87.1 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive26%
Fly ball26%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-34.1%significant
n=309 games · 18/159 HR when active
+51.6%significant
n=316 games · 19/89 HR when active
+34.2%significant
n=316 games · 16/81 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
1.52× HR rate
89 yes / 227 no · 48 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+40%
231 yes / 84 no · 48 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+34%
81 yes / 235 no · 48 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
0.66× HR rate
159 yes / 150 no · 46 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+29%
66 yes / 250 no · 48 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+25%
144 yes / 172 no · 48 HRs
Playing at home
+22%
159 yes / 157 no · 48 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−20%
90 yes / 226 no · 48 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+20%
4 yes / 3 no · 1 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−16%
5 yes / 311 no · 48 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−15%
20 yes / 296 no · 48 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+15%
144 yes / 170 no · 48 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−11%
39 yes / 277 no · 48 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−10%
226 yes / 90 no · 48 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+8%
29 yes / 286 no · 48 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−7%
145 yes / 171 no · 48 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
50 yes / 265 no · 48 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
45 yes / 225 no · 38 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
13 yes / 302 no · 48 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 316 no · 48 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 316 no · 48 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.