Randy Arozarena

LF · RHB · RHP · SEA

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

MIN

Starter

Taj Bradley (RHP)

Stadium

T-Mobile Park

Model HR%

17.0%

Model Hits%

67.0%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+6.3% edgemodel 67% · grade A

Why: NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340): -26.7% lift over 369 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (42% usage, .482 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	67%	+6.3%	70%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	17%	+4.6%	30%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Randy Arozarena, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	6-2	75%	+31.5%
A	7-2	78%	+255.9%
B	6-4	60%	+108.5%

Combined 19-8 · n=27 · ROI +134.8% · avg CLV -0.7 pts · beat close 20%

Matchup

Randy Arozarena (RHB) vs Taj Bradley RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Taj Bradley RHP · season · 121.2 IP · 521 BF

BAA

.211

wOBA

.300

SLG

.365

ISO

.154

WHIP

1.25

HR/9

1.26

BB%

10.2%

27.5%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.5%

HH%

45.7%

FB%

38.1%

HR/FB%

16.0%

Randy Arozarena hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	111-403	.275	.447	.171	15	13.5%	24.8%
vs RHP	86-298	.289	.480	.191	13	15.1%	25.2%

Pitch-type matchup

Taj Bradley's arsenal × how Randy Arozarena hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Taj Bradley throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	42%	96.3	15%	.383
TOPCutter	22%	89.5	32%	.350
Splitter	17%	91.0	27%	.306
TOPCurveball	13%	81.7	38%	.344
Sinker	6%	96.0	12%	.394

Randy Arozarena vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1306	29%	.482	95.2
TOPCutter	317	21%	.361	89.0
Splitter	125	40%	.233	86.1
TOPCurveball	176	29%	.484	94.1
Sinker	774	18%	.342	90.7

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.2

Our model67% OVER+6.3% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 1.2

Singlesavg 0.7

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 2.3

Home Runsavg 0.3

Strikeoutsavg 0.9

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	8%	—	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	67%	+6.3%	-154	+0.8	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	25%	+2.8%	+320	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	5%	-0.5%	+1600	-0.4	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	17%	+4.6%	+707	+0.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	11%	—	+301	-3.6	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	48%	—	+115	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	35%	—	+171	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=466 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-31

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	111-403	.275	.447	.171	22	1	15	63	24.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	25-105	.238	.352	.114	6	0	2	10	23.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	86-298	.289	.480	.191	16	1	13	53	25.2%
Last 15 days recent form	13-49	.265	.408	.143	1	0	2	8	22.4%
vs MIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	14-38	.368	.553	.184	2	1	1	6	31.6%
@ T-Mobile Park tonight's stadium	1071-3482	.308	.507	.199	175	0	173	483	19.7%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.315

wOBA0.332

delta+0.017 hot

n=464 PA

Spray chart

776 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph blowing out

Balls in play776

HR rate5.9%

Hard-hit (95+)46%

Avg exit velo91.3 mph

Ground ball46%

Line drive22%

Fly ball24%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

-26.7%significant

n=456 games · 9/87 HR when active

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

-26.0%significant

n=385 games · 6/64 HR when active

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

-24.2%significant

n=456 games · 27/219 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-28

// TONIGHT

2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY

Slight favorable lean

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+34% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
+28% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
−24% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight

+34%

194 yes / 263 no · 67 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−29%

139 yes / 318 no · 67 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)tonight

+28%

192 yes / 262 no · 67 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−27%

87 yes / 369 no · 67 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−26%

64 yes / 321 no · 53 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight

−24%

219 yes / 237 no · 67 HRs

// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−20%

7 yes / 450 no · 67 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−16%

110 yes / 322 no · 65 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−16%

281 yes / 176 no · 67 HRs

Playing at home

+14%

229 yes / 228 no · 67 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−13%

231 yes / 210 no · 64 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+13%

40 yes / 417 no · 67 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+11%

358 yes / 98 no · 67 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−10%

18 yes / 438 no · 67 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+7%

355 yes / 102 no · 67 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

−7%

88 yes / 368 no · 67 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+6%

83 yes / 373 no · 67 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

neutral

204 yes / 248 no · 66 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

neutral

45 yes / 409 no · 67 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

neutral

76 yes / 225 no · 42 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

neutral

322 yes / 132 no · 67 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

neutral

77 yes / 377 no · 67 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

185 yes / 266 no · 67 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

neutral

6 yes / 426 no · 65 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

neutral

63 yes / 376 no · 64 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 454 no · 67 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 457 no · 67 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-01	5	2	1	1	1	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 3 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-31	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-07-30	5	3	1	0	1	0	3-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-07-29	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-07-28	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-27	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-07-26	5	3	0	1	0	0	3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-07-25	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-24	5	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-07-22	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Randy Arozarena across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.