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Randy Arozarena
LF · RHB · RHP · SEA
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Randy Arozarena, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 12-3 | 80% | +36.9% |
| A | 9-4 | 69% | +268.0% |
| B | 6-11 | 35% | +34.8% |
Combined 27-18 · n=45 · ROI +102.9% · avg CLV -2.3 pts · beat close 30%
Matchup
Randy Arozarena (RHB) vs Ryan Johnson RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Ryan Johnson's arsenal × how Randy Arozarena hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5Plate Appearancesavg 4.5
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.4
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.4
Splits
Career n=643 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-13
xStats luck
xwOBA0.324
wOBA0.351
delta+0.027 hot
n=641 PA
Spray chart
889 balls in play since 2025Balls in play889
HR rate6.5%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo91.0 mph
Ground ball46%
Line drive22%
Fly ball25%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-30.2%significant
n=420 games · 6/66 HR when active
-27.1%significant
n=500 games · 29/229 HR when active
-24.4%small sample
n=501 games · 0/9 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −26% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+37%
226 yes / 275 no · 78 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+33%
94 yes / 244 no · 51 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+31%
55 yes / 443 no · 78 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−30%
66 yes / 354 no · 61 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−27%
229 yes / 271 no · 78 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
−26%
151 yes / 350 no · 78 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+20%
217 yes / 281 no · 78 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−24%
9 yes / 492 no · 78 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−17%
87 yes / 413 no · 78 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+15%
397 yes / 103 no · 78 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−13%
212 yes / 284 no · 77 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−12%
18 yes / 482 no · 78 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−9%
254 yes / 228 no · 74 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−9%
314 yes / 187 no · 78 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+8%
95 yes / 405 no · 78 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−7%
121 yes / 355 no · 76 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−7%
365 yes / 134 no · 77 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−5%
360 yes / 141 no · 78 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
94 yes / 406 no · 78 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
87 yes / 412 no · 77 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
68 yes / 415 no · 75 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
205 yes / 289 no · 78 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
46 yes / 455 no · 78 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
6 yes / 470 no · 76 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
251 yes / 250 no · 78 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 499 no · 77 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 501 no · 78 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Randy Arozarena across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.