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Spencer Steer
1B · RHB · RHP · CIN
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Spencer Steer, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 4-1 | 80% | +61.6% |
| A | 3-3 | 50% | +129.7% |
| B | 4-5 | 44% | +58.3% |
Combined 11-9 · n=20 · ROI +80.5% · avg CLV +1.9 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup
Spencer Steer (RHB) vs Mason Barnett RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Mason Barnett's arsenal × how Spencer Steer hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,337 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-07-26
xStats luck
xwOBA0.317
wOBA0.329
delta+0.012 hot
n=404 PA
Spray chart
661 balls in play since 2025Balls in play661
HR rate5.7%
Hard-hit (95+)38%
Avg exit velo88.7 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive22%
Fly ball30%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-47.7%significant
n=357 games · 3/59 HR when active
+47.6%significant
n=434 games · 11/51 HR when active
-29.3%significant
n=435 games · 23/209 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
1 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +35% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
- −29% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
- −28% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
0.52× HR rate
59 yes / 298 no · 49 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+48%
51 yes / 383 no · 59 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+46%
91 yes / 205 no · 41 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)tonight
+35%
183 yes / 249 no · 59 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−31%
60 yes / 375 no · 60 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+30%
112 yes / 307 no · 60 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
−29%
209 yes / 226 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight
−28%
241 yes / 172 no · 59 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+20%
305 yes / 129 no · 59 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−19%
201 yes / 230 no · 59 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−17%
48 yes / 388 no · 60 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+16%
101 yes / 334 no · 60 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+16%
122 yes / 313 no · 60 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+14%
267 yes / 168 no · 60 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+13%
217 yes / 219 no · 60 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+12%
81 yes / 326 no · 58 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+11%
119 yes / 316 no · 60 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+10%
192 yes / 244 no · 60 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−8%
326 yes / 109 no · 59 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+7%
19 yes / 416 no · 59 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−7%
2 yes / 434 no · 60 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
220 yes / 216 no · 60 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
115 yes / 321 no · 60 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
197 yes / 239 no · 60 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 436 no · 60 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 434 no · 59 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
7 yes / 412 no · 60 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Spencer Steer across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.