← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +6.9% edge model 73% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (46% usage, .371 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 73% +6.9% 20% CAUTION Home Runs OVER 0.5 8% -1.7% 0% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Austin Martin, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 1-1 50% -27.5% A 1-0 100% +44.1% B — — —
Combined 2-1 · n=3 · ROI -3.6% · avg CLV -1.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Austin Martin (RHB) vs Eric Lauer LHP favors batter favors pitcher Eric Lauer LHP · season · 58.4 IP · 251 BF
Austin Martin hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 162-622 .260 .349 .088 4 11.9% 20.1% vs LHP 56-206 .272 .379 .107 2 14.5% 19.9%
Pitch-type matchup Eric Lauer's arsenal × how Austin Martin hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Eric Lauer throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam46% 91.4 16% .386 TOP Cutter20% 86.4 22% .483 Curveball 14% 75.1 22% .349 Slider 11% 83.0 22% .283 Changeup 10% 84.3 15% .390 Sinker 0% 91.9 — —
Austin Martin vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam467 4% .371 90.6 TOP Cutter133 14% .455 85.1 Curveball 88 23% .224 82.1 Slider 176 36% .349 75.7 Changeup 170 38% .295 74.9 Sinker 313 13% .281 85.6
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits20% Total Bases10% Home Runs0% Singles10% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts60% Walks40% RBIs0% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs40% Stolen Bases0%
20% 2/10 · L10 · avg 0.2
Our model 73% OVER +6.9% edge A
0 vKCR 06-07 0 @DET 06-09 1 @DET 06-10 0 @DET 06-11 0 vSTL 06-13 0 vSTL 06-14 1 @TEX 06-15 0 @ARI 06-19 0 @ARI 06-20 0 @ARI 06-21
L5 20% 1/5 L10 20% 2/10 L20 30% 6/20 2026 55% 45/82 2025 65% 33/51
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 2.8 Plate Appearances avg 2.8
4 2 5 3 4 2 4 2 1 1 Total Bases avg 0.3
0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.0
3 0 1 1 0 2 1 2 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 10% — +325 +1.3 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 73% +6.9% -196 +0.0 Sign in 1.5 OVER A 31% +5.8% +280 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 7% -2.4% +1000 -0.9 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 8% -1.7% +950 +0.2 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 6% — +275 +0.6 — 1.5 — PASS 3% — +1000 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 61% — -137 +9.0 — 1.5 — PASS 17% — +500 +0.0 —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 37% — -137 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — B 41% — +165 -3.1 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -196 +280 +1000 +950
Price legs
Splits Career n=706 PA · 2024-03-31 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
162-622 .260 .349 .088 39 2 4 84 20.1% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
56-206 .272 .379 .107 16 0 2 35 19.9% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
106-416 .255 .334 .079 23 2 2 49 20.2% Last 15 days
recent form
2-21 .095 .143 .048 1 0 0 6 47.6% vs Eric Lauer
tonight's starting pitcher
3-4 .750 .750 .000 0 0 0 1 25.0% vs LAD
tonight's opponent (full roster)
3-5 .600 .600 .000 0 0 0 1 20.0% @ Target Field
tonight's stadium
269-3308 .081 .081 .000 0 0 0 312 40.7%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.319
wOBA 0.325
delta +0.006 hot
n=251 PA
Spray chart 306 balls in play since 2025 · wind 7 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Eric Lauer's mix Balls in play 306
HR rate 1.0%
Hard-hit (95+) 27%
Avg exit velo 85.8 mph
Ground ball 49%
Line drive 25%
Fly ball 22%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 · 1 R 2026-06-20 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-0 · 1 BB 2026-06-19 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-2 · 2 K 2026-06-15 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-14 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-2 · 2 K 2026-06-13 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-11 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-10 5 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-for-4 · 2 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-09 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-1 · 1 BB 2026-06-07 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-4 · 3 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Austin Martin across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
