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Royce Lewis
1B · RHB · RHP · MIN
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+2.8% edgemodel 21% · grade PASS
Why: strong vs the Sinker (24% usage, .365 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Royce Lewis, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-3 | 25% | -57.3% |
| A | 6-4 | 60% | +131.2% |
| B | 5-7 | 42% | +16.9% |
Combined 12-14 · n=26 · ROI +49.4% · avg CLV +0.3 pts · beat close 73%
Matchup
Royce Lewis (RHB) vs Robert Gasser LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Robert Gasser's arsenal × how Royce Lewis hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 1.5
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 2.9
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-08-08 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=1,372 PA · 2023-05-29 → 2026-08-06
xStats luck
xwOBA0.285
wOBA0.300
delta+0.015 hot
n=352 PA
Spray chart
532 balls in play since 2025Balls in play532
HR rate4.9%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo90.0 mph
Ground ball35%
Line drive22%
Fly ball31%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Royce Lewis across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.