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Adley Rutschman
C · SHB · RHP · BOS
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+1.6% edgemodel 64% · grade PASS
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (19% usage, .376 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Adley Rutschman, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-3 | 50% | +15.3% |
| A | 2-4 | 33% | -26.0% |
| B | 6-10 | 38% | +9.8% |
Combined 11-17 · n=28 · ROI +3.3% · avg CLV -6.9 pts · beat close 43%
Matchup
Adley Rutschman (SHB) vs Griffin Jax RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Griffin Jax's arsenal × how Adley Rutschman hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.2
Doublesavg 0.4
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=398 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-09-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.315
wOBA0.311
delta−0.004 due
n=398 PA
Spray chart
573 balls in play since 2025Balls in play573
HR rate3.8%
Hard-hit (95+)38%
Avg exit velo88.8 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive24%
Fly ball30%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Adley Rutschman across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.