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Sean Murphy
C · RHB · ATL
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Sean Murphy, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-11 | 21% | -59.5% |
| A | 1-3 | 25% | -53.4% |
| B | 1-5 | 17% | -65.3% |
Combined 5-19 · n=24 · ROI -59.9% · avg CLV +0.6 pts · beat close 43%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.7Plate Appearancesavg 3.7
Hitsavg 0.4
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.5
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.5
Splits
Career n=121 PA · 2026-05-04 → 2026-09-27
xStats luck
xwOBA0.272
wOBA0.249
delta−0.023 due
n=121 PA
Spray chart
262 balls in play since 2025Balls in play262
HR rate7.3%
Hard-hit (95+)36%
Avg exit velo88.1 mph
Ground ball49%
Line drive19%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-31.1%significant
n=215 games · 14/109 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+39%
57 yes / 158 no · 36 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−31%
109 yes / 106 no · 36 HRs
// 10 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−18%
103 yes / 112 no · 36 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−17%
32 yes / 182 no · 36 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−17%
32 yes / 182 no · 36 HRs
Playing at home
−15%
107 yes / 108 no · 36 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
98 yes / 116 no · 36 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
40 yes / 174 no · 36 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Sean Murphy across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.