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Austin Wells
C · LHB · RHP · NYY
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+24.1% edgemodel 66% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (41% usage, .400 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Austin Wells, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-11 | 45% | +18.3% |
| A | 6-8 | 43% | -1.3% |
| B | 3-9 | 25% | +22.3% |
Combined 18-28 · n=46 · ROI +13.4% · avg CLV -1.4 pts · beat close 38%
Matchup
Austin Wells (LHB) vs Trevor Rogers LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Trevor Rogers's arsenal × how Austin Wells hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.3Plate Appearancesavg 3.3
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.9
Home Runsavg 0.4
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-09-25 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=1,474 PA · 2023-09-01 → 2026-09-22
xStats luck
xwOBA0.285
wOBA0.268
delta−0.017 due
n=393 PA
Spray chart
563 balls in play since 2025Balls in play563
HR rate6.6%
Hard-hit (95+)44%
Avg exit velo89.1 mph
Ground ball34%
Line drive21%
Fly ball34%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Austin Wells across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.