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Jake Burger
1B · RHB · RHP · TEX
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Jake Burger, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 17-4 | 81% | +93.5% |
| A | 8-9 | 47% | +1.7% |
| B | 8-11 | 42% | +5.0% |
Combined 33-24 · n=57 · ROI +36.6% · avg CLV -1.4 pts · beat close 26%
Matchup
Jake Burger (RHB) vs Nolan McLean RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Nolan McLean's arsenal × how Jake Burger hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.2
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.0
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.3
Walksavg 0.7
Tonight's lines
2026-09-23 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=615 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.308
wOBA0.317
delta+0.009 hot
n=614 PA
Spray chart
670 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph cross-windBalls in play670
HR rate6.7%
Hard-hit (95+)49%
Avg exit velo90.8 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive21%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+36.6%significant
n=432 games · 21/89 HR when active
-23.6%significant
n=431 games · 51/318 HR when active
+18.3%small sample
n=408 games · 15/67 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-22
// TONIGHT
0 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −39% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
- −25% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)tonight
0.61× HR rate
164 yes / 263 no · 74 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+37%
89 yes / 343 no · 76 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)tonight
−25%
180 yes / 254 no · 77 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−24%
318 yes / 113 no · 76 HRs
// 24 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+40%
9 yes / 408 no · 73 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+20%
82 yes / 222 no · 41 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+18%
67 yes / 341 no · 76 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−17%
96 yes / 338 no · 77 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−16%
230 yes / 204 no · 77 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+13%
69 yes / 361 no · 76 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+13%
12 yes / 422 no · 77 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−12%
60 yes / 305 no · 57 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−11%
137 yes / 297 no · 77 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+11%
23 yes / 410 no · 77 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−9%
181 yes / 250 no · 76 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−5%
84 yes / 347 no · 76 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
154 yes / 263 no · 73 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
186 yes / 248 no · 77 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
48 yes / 386 no · 77 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
330 yes / 103 no · 77 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
190 yes / 237 no · 76 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 433 no · 77 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
224 yes / 210 no · 77 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
60 yes / 371 no · 76 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
184 yes / 250 no · 77 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
247 yes / 169 no · 71 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 431 no · 76 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Jake Burger across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.