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Jake Burger
1B · RHB · RHP · TEX
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Jake Burger, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-1 | 90% | +98.7% |
| A | 8-9 | 47% | -4.1% |
| B | 2-9 | 18% | -40.6% |
Combined 19-19 · n=38 · ROI +12.4% · avg CLV -0.7 pts · beat close 43%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.5Plate Appearancesavg 3.5
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.1
Splits
Career n=456 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.301
wOBA0.316
delta+0.015 hot
n=455 PA
Spray chart
578 balls in play since 2025Balls in play578
HR rate6.4%
Hard-hit (95+)50%
Avg exit velo91.0 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive22%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-41.2%significant
n=388 games · 37/265 HR when active
-17.8%small sample
n=388 games · 8/58 HR when active
+20.3%significant
n=390 games · 17/80 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
0.59× HR rate
265 yes / 123 no · 69 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
0.62× HR rate
145 yes / 240 no · 67 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−30%
90 yes / 302 no · 70 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−20%
170 yes / 215 no · 69 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+20%
80 yes / 310 no · 69 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+40%
9 yes / 366 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−18%
58 yes / 330 no · 69 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−18%
218 yes / 174 no · 70 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+16%
41 yes / 351 no · 70 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−16%
153 yes / 239 no · 70 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−13%
58 yes / 279 no · 55 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+13%
12 yes / 380 no · 70 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−12%
119 yes / 273 no · 70 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+11%
23 yes / 368 no · 70 HRs
Playing at home
+7%
200 yes / 192 no · 70 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−6%
224 yes / 154 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+6%
80 yes / 309 no · 69 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+5%
120 yes / 255 no · 66 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
295 yes / 96 no · 70 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
167 yes / 225 no · 70 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
62 yes / 304 no · 68 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 391 no · 70 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
70 yes / 203 no · 36 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
160 yes / 232 no · 70 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
173 yes / 216 no · 69 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
61 yes / 327 no · 69 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 388 no · 69 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Jake Burger across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.