← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +23.1% edge model 65% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (27% usage, .366 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 65% +23.1% 70% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 9% +0.5% 0% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Kameron Misner, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 0-1 0% -100.0% A — — — B — — —
Combined 0-1 · n=1 · ROI -100.0% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Kameron Misner (LHB) vs Anthony Kay LHP favors batter favors pitcher Anthony Kay LHP · season · 90.5 IP · 389 BF
Kameron Misner hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 56-258 .217 .326 .109 5 6.9% 36.4% vs LHP 8-49 .163 .265 .102 1 5.8% 40.8%
Pitch-type matchup Anthony Kay's arsenal × how Kameron Misner hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Anthony Kay throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam27% 95.7 16% .461 TOP Sweeper20% 82.5 31% .315 Cutter 19% 90.8 16% .393 Sinker 18% 94.8 14% .405 Changeup 14% 85.7 23% .306 Slider 2% 84.2 33% .313
Kameron Misner vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam276 27% .366 90.3 TOP Sweeper56 38% .393 82.2 Cutter 80 38% .307 85.4 Sinker 128 20% .267 85.2 Changeup 136 42% .270 85.0 Slider 121 44% .505 81.7
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases30% Home Runs0% Singles60% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts80% Walks10% RBIs30% Runs Scored10% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases20%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 0.9
Our model 65% OVER +23.1% edge S
0 @TEX 03-23 1 @TEX 03-24 1 vTEX 06-11 2 vHOU 06-12 1 vHOU 06-13 2 vHOU 06-14 0 @WSN 06-16 1 vSTL 06-21 1 @TBR 06-23 0 @TBR 06-24
L5 60% 3/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 60% 12/20 2026 50% 12/24 2025 54% 35/65
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.2 Plate Appearances avg 3.2
1 1 3 3 4 3 4 5 4 4 Total Bases avg 1.0
0 1 1 2 1 2 0 1 2 0 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.3
1 0 1 0 1 1 3 1 2 3
Tonight's lines 2026-06-28 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5+138 Hits OVER 1.5+600 Hits OVER 2.5+5000 Home Runs OVER 0.5+1116
Price legs
Splits Career n=277 PA · 2024-08-02 → 2026-06-24
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
56-258 .217 .326 .109 11 1 5 19 36.4% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
8-49 .163 .265 .102 2 0 1 3 40.8% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
48-209 .230 .340 .110 9 1 4 16 35.4% Last 15 days
recent form
5-24 .208 .250 .042 1 0 0 0 45.8%
Spray chart 157 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Anthony Kay's mix Balls in play 157
HR rate 3.2%
Hard-hit (95+) 27%
Avg exit velo 86.3 mph
Ground ball 43%
Line drive 23%
Fly ball 29%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-24 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-4 · 1 SB · 3 K 2026-06-23 4 1 1 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 2 K 2026-06-21 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-16 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-4 · 3 K 2026-06-14 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-3 · 1 SB · 1 K 2026-06-13 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-12 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-3 · 2 RBI 2026-06-11 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-for-2 · 1 RBI · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-03-24 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-1 2026-03-23 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Kameron Misner across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.