← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +12.3% edge model 67% · grade S
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 67% +12.3% 30% CAUTION Home Runs OVER 0.5 9% +2.8% 0% CAUTION
Matchup TJ Friedl (LHB) vs Mitch Keller RHP favors batter favors pitcher Mitch Keller RHP · season · 96.0 IP · 413 BF
TJ Friedl hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 391-1599 .245 .382 .138 47 11.9% 19.3% vs RHP 295-1216 .243 .389 .146 38 11.9% 18.4%
Pitch-type matchup Mitch Keller's arsenal × how TJ Friedl hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Mitch Keller throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 35% 93.9 14% .396 Sweeper 19% 82.4 25% .359 Sinker 18% 92.7 13% .335 Slider 12% 87.1 24% .358 Changeup 8% 89.1 17% .413 Curveball 7% 77.7 31% .387 Cutter 2% 90.2 23% .305
TJ Friedl vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 1299 9% .288 86.9 Sweeper 184 30% .296 76.0 Sinker 539 5% .278 83.6 Slider 347 31% .331 85.4 Changeup 366 38% .275 82.2 Curveball 278 31% .270 87.5 Cutter 210 7% .346 83.9
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits30% Total Bases0% Home Runs0% Singles30% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks10% RBIs10% Runs Scored10% Hits + Runs + RBIs40% Stolen Bases10%
30% 3/10 · L10 · avg 0.3
Our model 67% OVER +12.3% edge S
1 vWSN 05-12 0 vWSN 05-13 0 @CLE 05-17 0 @PHI 05-18 0 vSTL 05-23 0 vSTL 05-23 1 @NYM 05-27 1 vATL 05-29 0 vATL 05-30 0 vKCR 06-02
L5 40% 2/5 L10 30% 3/10 L20 45% 9/20 2026 52% 33/64 2025 66% 105/158
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 2.5 Plate Appearances avg 2.5
5 2 2 4 2 1 3 2 3 1 Total Bases avg 0.3
1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.8
3 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-28 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -123 +400 +2000 +1590
Price legs
Splits Career n=1,814 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-02
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
391-1599 .245 .382 .138 57 11 47 215 19.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
96-383 .251 .360 .110 7 4 9 50 22.2% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
295-1216 .243 .389 .146 50 7 38 165 18.4% vs Mitch Keller
tonight's starting pitcher
3-18 .167 .278 .111 2 0 0 2 27.8% vs PIT
tonight's opponent (full roster)
13-62 .210 .323 .113 7 0 0 16 21.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.272
wOBA 0.289
delta +0.017 hot
n=193 PA
Spray chart 619 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Mitch Keller's mix Balls in play 619
HR rate 2.6%
Hard-hit (95+) 33%
Avg exit velo 84.0 mph
Ground ball 44%
Line drive 25%
Fly ball 22%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-02 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-05-30 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-05-29 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-2 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-05-27 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-2 · 1 BB 2026-05-23 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-05-23 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-05-18 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-05-17 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-2 · 2 K 2026-05-13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-05-12 5 1 0 0 0 0 3 1-for-5 · 1 SB · 3 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to TJ Friedl across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
