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Lawrence Butler
RF · LHB · RHP · OAK
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+3.2% edgemodel 16% · grade B
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (48% usage, .396 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Lawrence Butler, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 10-3 | 77% | +71.4% |
| A | 4-5 | 44% | +47.8% |
| B | 2-3 | 40% | -38.8% |
Combined 16-11 · n=27 · ROI +43.1% · avg CLV -7.7 pts · beat close 14%
Matchup
Lawrence Butler (LHB) vs MacKenzie Gore LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
MacKenzie Gore's arsenal × how Lawrence Butler hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 2.0
Home Runsavg 0.4
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-08-17 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=1,634 PA · 2023-08-11 → 2026-08-12
xStats luck
xwOBA0.303
wOBA0.288
delta−0.015 due
n=378 PA
Spray chart
645 balls in play since 2025Balls in play645
HR rate5.0%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo90.1 mph
Ground ball48%
Line drive24%
Fly ball23%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Lawrence Butler across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.