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Michael Harris II
CF · LHB · LHP · ATL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+10.9% edgemodel 28% · grade S
Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +47.0% lift over 179 games.
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Michael Harris II, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-3 | 50% | +28.8% |
| A | 5-3 | 63% | +14.1% |
| B | 4-10 | 29% | -1.6% |
Combined 12-16 · n=28 · ROI +9.4% · avg CLV -0.9 pts · beat close 29%
Matchup
Michael Harris II (LHB) vs Janson Junk RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=450 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.336
wOBA0.331
delta−0.005 due
n=449 PA
Spray chart
854 balls in play since 2025Balls in play854
HR rate4.6%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo89.3 mph
Ground ball48%
Line drive23%
Fly ball23%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+47.0%significant
n=342 games · 26/179 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Slight favorable lean
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +48% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- +47% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
- −25% HR rate when playing at home.
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+49%
54 yes / 289 no · 41 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+48%
153 yes / 190 no · 41 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
+47%
179 yes / 163 no · 41 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+35%
19 yes / 323 no · 41 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+26%
51 yes / 292 no · 41 HRs
Playing at hometonight
−25%
171 yes / 172 no · 41 HRs
// 6 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−16%
89 yes / 254 no · 41 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−11%
260 yes / 82 no · 41 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Michael Harris II across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.