Gabriel Arias

SS · RHB · CLE

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

SEA

Starter

Emerson Hancock (RHP)

Stadium

Progressive Field

Model HR%

7.9%

Model Hits%

47.9%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 0.5+1.8% edgemodel 52% · grade PASS

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 0.5	52%	+1.8%	30%	CAUTION
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	92%	+0.3%	90%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Gabriel Arias, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	1-0	100%	+90.1%
A	—	—	—
B	1-1	50%	+187.5%

Combined 2-1 · n=3 · ROI +155.0% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Gabriel Arias (RHB) vs Emerson Hancock RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Emerson Hancock RHP · season · 82.6 IP · 355 BF

BAA

.229

wOBA

.340

SLG

.383

ISO

.154

WHIP

1.20

HR/9

1.31

BB%

6.5%

23.9%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.7%

HH%

44.5%

FB%

38.2%

HR/FB%

16.4%

Gabriel Arias hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	225-1037	.217	.360	.143	29	7.1%	35.9%
vs RHP	162-695	.233	.381	.148	21	7.3%	33.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Emerson Hancock's arsenal × how Gabriel Arias hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Emerson Hancock throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Sinker	33%	94.7	7%	.366
TOPFour-Seam	30%	95.0	23%	.462
TOPChangeup	14%	86.7	24%	.423
Sweeper	11%	77.9	37%	.378
Slider	6%	81.8	29%	.431
Cutter	5%	85.8	31%	.179
Curveball	1%	76.3	33%	.575

Gabriel Arias vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Sinker	364	25%	.341	88.2
TOPFour-Seam	572	34%	.477	93.3
TOPChangeup	212	52%	.389	85.1
Sweeper	218	40%	.375	89.8
Slider	347	42%	.337	91.9
Cutter	157	29%	.454	85.5
Curveball	95	52%	.606	96.7

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model52% UNDER+1.8% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.7

Plate Appearancesavg 3.7

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.4

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.7

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-06-28 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	7%	—	+600	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	52%	+1.8%	-101	+2.6	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	S	18%	+1.4%	+450	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	4%	-0.3%	+2500	-0.4	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	92%	+0.3%	-1111	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+297	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	3%	—	+900	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	36%	—	+148	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+800	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	29%	—	+220	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=1,116 PA · 2023-04-02 → 2026-06-22

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	225-1037	.217	.360	.143	53	4	29	79	35.9%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	63-342	.184	.316	.132	15	3	8	24	41.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	162-695	.233	.381	.148	38	1	21	55	33.1%
Last 15 days recent form	4-22	.182	.227	.045	1	0	0	0	59.1%
vs SEA tonight's opponent (full roster)	0-19	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	3	47.4%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.261

wOBA0.273

delta+0.012 hot

n=75 PA

Spray chart

338 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play338

HR rate4.4%

Hard-hit (95+)46%

Avg exit velo89.3 mph

Ground ball51%

Line drive23%

Fly ball21%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-27	3	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-3 · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-06-22	5	0	0	0	0	5	0-for-5 · 5 K
2026-06-21	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-19	4	1	1	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 K
2026-06-18	5	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-5 · 2 K
2026-06-16	4	2	0	0	0	2	2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 2 K
2026-04-06	2	1	1	0	0	1	1-for-2 · 1 2B · 1 K
2026-04-05	4	2	0	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 2 RBI
2026-04-05	3	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-04-03	3	1	0	1	1	1	1-for-2 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Gabriel Arias across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.