Otto Lopez

SS · RHB · RHP · MIA

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

ATL

Starter

Martín Pérez (LHP)

Stadium

Truist Park

Model HR%

15.3%

Model Hits%

81.0%

Model K%

25.6%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 1.5+6.0% edgemodel 71% · grade A

Why: struggles vs the Changeup (30% usage, .249 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 1.5	71%	+6.0%	80%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	10%	+2.2%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Otto Lopez, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	3-5	38%	-13.1%
A	8-3	73%	+45.4%
B	3-8	27%	-57.6%

Combined 14-16 · n=30 · ROI -8.0% · avg CLV +1.1 pts · beat close 38%

Matchup

Otto Lopez (RHB) vs Martín Pérez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Martín Pérez LHP · season · 97.2 IP · 418 BF

BAA

.216

wOBA

.328

SLG

.365

ISO

.149

WHIP

1.28

HR/9

1.02

BB%

10.3%

18.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.7%

HH%

37.9%

FB%

26.8%

HR/FB%

16.9%

Otto Lopez hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	396-1454	.272	.399	.127	31	6.6%	15.6%
vs LHP	108-432	.250	.345	.095	6	4.4%	16.7%

Pitch-type matchup

Martín Pérez's arsenal × how Otto Lopez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Martín Pérez throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Changeup	30%	82.5	30%	.342
TOPSinker	30%	89.7	8%	.376
Cutter	25%	86.1	14%	.471
Curveball	9%	76.8	24%	.385
Four-Seam	5%	90.0	11%	.285

Otto Lopez vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Changeup	292	29%	.249	83.1
TOPSinker	608	4%	.383	92.8
Cutter	208	8%	.316	89.5
Curveball	172	32%	.348	84.3
Four-Seam	785	8%	.410	93.8

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model31% UNDER+0.7% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.7

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.2

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.4

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	7%	—	+375	-1.9	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	31%	+0.7%	+230	+2.5	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	A	71%	+6.0%	-189	+3.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-8.7%	+600	-1.7	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	10%	+2.2%	+1166	-0.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	6%	—	+230	-1.6	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	B	4%	—	+600	+1.8	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	56%	—	-195	-2.6	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	18%	—	+360	-2.1	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	37%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	32%	—	+127	-3.1	Sign in to save	—
2.5	—	A	20%	—	+240	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=1,557 PA · 2024-03-16 → 2026-08-04

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	396-1454	.272	.399	.127	75	8	31	103	15.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	108-432	.250	.345	.095	19	2	6	20	16.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	288-1022	.282	.422	.140	56	6	25	83	15.2%
Last 15 days recent form	12-52	.231	.308	.077	2	1	0	1	7.7%
vs Martín Pérez tonight's starting pitcher	2-5	.400	.400	.000	0	0	0	1	0.0%
vs ATL tonight's opponent (full roster)	20-67	.299	.328	.030	2	0	0	6	17.9%
@ Truist Park tonight's stadium	350-700	.500	.750	.250	175	0	0	0	0.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.312

wOBA0.332

delta+0.020 hot

n=490 PA

Spray chart

871 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play871

HR rate2.9%

Hard-hit (95+)39%

Avg exit velo88.1 mph

Ground ball50%

Line drive24%

Fly ball22%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	3B	K	Outcomes
2026-08-05	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-08-04	4	2	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-08-02	4	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 SB
2026-08-01	5	1	1	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 K
2026-07-31	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-07-30	4	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-29	5	2	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 2 RBI · 1 R
2026-07-28	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-07-27	5	3	0	1	0	3-for-5 · 1 3B · 1 RBI · 2 R · 2 SB
2026-07-26	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Otto Lopez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.