Kazuma Okamoto

3B · RHB · RHP · TOR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

TEX

Starter

Jacob deGrom (RHP)

Stadium

Globe Life Field

Model HR%

27.9%

Model Hits%

63.2%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+14.4% edgemodel 28% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (45% usage, .532 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	28%	+14.4%	40%	LEAN
Hits	OVER 0.5	63%	+8.7%	80%	STRONG

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Kazuma Okamoto, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	16-8	67%	+82.5%
A	13-10	57%	+73.4%
B	11-12	48%	+62.8%

Combined 40-30 · n=70 · ROI +73.0% · avg CLV -0.3 pts · beat close 36%

Matchup

Kazuma Okamoto (RHB) vs Jacob deGrom RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Jacob deGrom RHP · season · 145.3 IP · 625 BF

BAA

.215

wOBA

.280

SLG

.357

ISO

.142

WHIP

1.14

HR/9

1.24

BB%

6.4%

31.0%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.6%

HH%

44.7%

FB%

36.3%

HR/FB%

16.1%

Kazuma Okamoto hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	131-555	.236	.459	.223	33	10.3%	32.1%
vs RHP	95-411	.231	.438	.207	23	9.9%	33.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Jacob deGrom's arsenal × how Kazuma Okamoto hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Jacob deGrom throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	45%	97.4	19%	.398
TOPSlider	37%	90.5	38%	.368
Changeup	12%	89.8	39%	.389
Curveball	5%	81.0	38%	.304
Sinker	0%	96.4	20%	.507

Kazuma Okamoto vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	242	26%	.532	96.9
TOPSlider	122	43%	.606	88.6
Changeup	71	37%	.300	76.3
Curveball	51	35%	.144	85.1
Sinker	191	22%	.418	94.3

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 1.0

Our model63% OVER+8.7% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0

Plate Appearancesavg 4.0

Hitsavg 1.0

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 2.3

Home Runsavg 0.4

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+525	-0.2	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	63%	+8.7%	-120	-3.8	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	22%	+1.1%	+380	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	28%	+14.4%	+640	+0.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	19%	—	+251	+1.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	17%	—	+550	+1.1	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	33%	—	+150	+1.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	5%	—	+900	+0.9	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	38%	—	+185	+2.3	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=619 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	131-555	.236	.459	.223	25	33	64	32.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	36-144	.250	.521	.271	9	10	19	29.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	95-411	.231	.438	.207	16	23	45	33.1%
Last 15 days recent form	14-42	.333	.762	.429	3	5	7	21.4%
vs TEX tonight's opponent (full roster)	5-19	.263	.579	.316	0	2	1	36.8%
@ Globe Life Field tonight's stadium	18-54	.333	.333	.000	0	0	18	33.3%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.326

wOBA0.334

delta+0.008 hot

n=617 PA

Spray chart

374 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph blowing out

Balls in play374

HR rate8.6%

Hard-hit (95+)42%

Avg exit velo89.9 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive20%

Fly ball33%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-09-18	4	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-16	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-15	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-14	4	1	0	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-13	4	1	0	1	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-09-12	4	1	0	0	2	0	1-for-2 · 2 BB
2026-09-11	4	2	1	1	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-09	4	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-09-08	4	2	0	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Kazuma Okamoto across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.