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Yainer Diaz
C · RHB · HOU
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Yainer Diaz, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 0-6 | 0% | -100.0% |
| A | 1-4 | 20% | -69.0% |
| B | 1-5 | 17% | -74.2% |
Combined 2-15 · n=17 · ROI -81.8% · avg CLV -5.6 pts · beat close 20%
Matchup
Yainer Diaz (RHB) vs George Kirby RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
George Kirby's arsenal × how Yainer Diaz hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.4Plate Appearancesavg 3.4
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.6
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.2
Splits
Career n=251 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-11
xStats luck
xwOBA0.306
wOBA0.292
delta−0.014 due
n=249 PA
Spray chart
657 balls in play since 2025· wind 10 mph blowing outBalls in play657
HR rate4.3%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo90.1 mph
Ground ball49%
Line drive24%
Fly ball22%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+16.2%small sample
n=288 games · 23/141 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
2.07× HR rate
181 yes / 108 no · 43 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
1.74× HR rate
134 yes / 156 no · 43 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−29%
78 yes / 212 no · 43 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−29%
37 yes / 252 no · 43 HRs
// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+16%
141 yes / 147 no · 43 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−10%
32 yes / 258 no · 43 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−6%
44 yes / 246 no · 43 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
153 yes / 137 no · 43 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Yainer Diaz across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.