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Luis Robert Jr.
CF · RHB · BAL
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Luis Robert Jr., by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 6-0 | 100% | +102.2% |
| A | 2-1 | 67% | +209.6% |
| B | 1-5 | 17% | +28.2% |
Combined 9-6 · n=15 · ROI +94.1% · avg CLV -0.3 pts · beat close 10%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8Plate Appearancesavg 3.8
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.5
Splits
Career n=248 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.300
wOBA0.308
delta+0.008 hot
n=248 PA
Spray chart
451 balls in play since 2025Balls in play451
HR rate6.0%
Hard-hit (95+)39%
Avg exit velo89.4 mph
Ground ball40%
Line drive22%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-41.9%significant
n=337 games · 0/19 HR when active
+52.7%significant
n=337 games · 34/143 HR when active
-31.8%significant
n=335 games · 38/240 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
1.60× HR rate
58 yes / 158 no · 27 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
1.56× HR rate
20 yes / 312 no · 62 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
1.53× HR rate
159 yes / 178 no · 62 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
1.53× HR rate
143 yes / 194 no · 62 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
0.58× HR rate
19 yes / 318 no · 62 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+32%
80 yes / 257 no · 62 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−32%
240 yes / 95 no · 62 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+26%
144 yes / 189 no · 62 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+23%
27 yes / 310 no · 62 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−22%
90 yes / 247 no · 62 HRs
// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
−19%
19 yes / 317 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+18%
186 yes / 135 no · 59 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−17%
50 yes / 229 no · 43 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+17%
69 yes / 267 no · 62 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+17%
64 yes / 272 no · 62 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−16%
42 yes / 290 no · 62 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+15%
243 yes / 93 no · 62 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+12%
166 yes / 166 no · 60 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−11%
80 yes / 257 no · 62 HRs
Playing at home
−10%
174 yes / 163 no · 62 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+8%
188 yes / 149 no · 62 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−6%
45 yes / 263 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
51 yes / 284 no · 62 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 336 no · 62 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 334 no · 62 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
239 yes / 98 no · 62 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 337 no · 62 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Luis Robert Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.