← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +0.7% edge model 68% · grade PASS
Why: strong vs the Cutter (22% usage, .390 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 68% +0.7% 60% LEAN Home Runs OVER 0.5 10% +0.7% 0% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jonny DeLuca, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 4-1 80% +96.4% A 4-2 67% +41.7% B 2-5 29% -54.7%
Combined 10-8 · n=18 · ROI +19.4% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Jonny DeLuca (RHB) vs Brady Basso favors batter favors pitcher Brady Basso · season · 41.6 IP · 179 BF
Jonny DeLuca hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 85-326 .261 .405 .144 9 4.4% 19.9% vs ?HP 50-193 .259 .425 .166 7 4.9% 19.7%
Pitch-type matchup Brady Basso's arsenal × how Jonny DeLuca hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Brady Basso throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 50% 93.0 16% .310 TOP Cutter22% 88.8 27% .408 Curveball 16% 77.8 17% .273 Changeup 9% 86.3 10% .513 Sinker 3% 92.9 0% —
Jonny DeLuca vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 231 27% .305 83.9 TOP Cutter65 11% .390 85.4 Curveball 37 20% .225 90.3 Changeup 90 28% .148 84.0 Sinker 131 16% .397 86.5
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases30% Home Runs0% Singles60% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks20% RBIs20% Runs Scored20% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases10%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9
Our model 68% OVER +0.7% edge PASS
1 vNYM 08-31 0 vNYM 09-01 0 vNYM 09-02 0 @TEX 09-03 2 @TEX 09-06 0 @ATL 09-08 2 @ATL 09-10 1 vHOU 09-12 1 vHOU 09-13 2 vOAK 09-16
L5 80% 4/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 70% 14/20 2026 61% 67/109 2025 70% 16/23
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.7 Plate Appearances avg 3.7
4 4 2 4 5 5 3 1 5 4 Total Bases avg 1.0
1 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 1 3 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.6
2 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1
Tonight's lines 2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-204 Hits OVER 1.5+260 Home Runs OVER 0.5+1023
Price legs
Splits Career n=341 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-13
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
85-326 .261 .405 .144 20 0 9 15 19.9% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
35-133 .263 .376 .113 9 0 2 5 20.3% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
50-193 .259 .425 .166 11 0 7 10 19.7% Last 15 days
recent form
6-24 .250 .250 .000 0 0 0 1 12.5% @ Tropicana Field
tonight's stadium
2716-15290 .178 .268 .090 157 0 407 834 22.4%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.252
wOBA 0.302
delta +0.050 hot
n=341 PA
Spray chart 316 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Brady Basso's mix Balls in play 316
HR rate 2.8%
Hard-hit (95+) 27%
Avg exit velo 83.5 mph
Ground ball 42%
Line drive 22%
Fly ball 22%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-09-13 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-09-12 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-1 · 1 SB 2026-09-10 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-3 2026-09-08 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-5 · 1 K 2026-09-06 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-5 · 1 RBI 2026-09-03 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-09-02 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-2 · 1 K 2026-09-01 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 2026-08-31 4 1 0 0 0 1 2 1-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-08-30 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jonny DeLuca across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.