← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +1.6% edge model 67% · grade PASS
Why: strong vs the Sinker (55% usage, .397 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 67% +1.6% 60% LEAN Home Runs OVER 0.5 9% +1.0% 20% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jonny DeLuca, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-0 100% +225.5% A 1-1 50% +30.5% B — — —
Combined 3-1 · n=4 · ROI +128.0% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Jonny DeLuca (RHB) vs Jordan Hicks RHP favors batter favors pitcher Jordan Hicks RHP · season · 35.1 IP · 151 BF
Jonny DeLuca hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 57-219 .260 .425 .164 7 4.8% 20.1% vs RHP 35-129 .271 .442 .171 5 4.4% 19.4%
Pitch-type matchup Jordan Hicks's arsenal × how Jonny DeLuca hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Jordan Hicks throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Sinker55% 97.7 9% .321 TOP Sweeper25% 84.1 43% .377 Four-Seam 9% 97.5 17% .507 Splitter 6% 89.0 27% .329 Slider 5% 84.3 49% .281
Jonny DeLuca vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Sinker131 16% .397 86.5 TOP Sweeper54 18% .352 77.4 Four-Seam 231 27% .305 83.9 Splitter 22 21% .452 91.5 Slider 116 24% .335 82.5
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases60% Home Runs20% Singles40% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks10% RBIs50% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases20%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 1.1
Our model 67% OVER +1.6% edge PASS
2 @BOS 07-17 0 @BOS 07-17 2 @BOS 07-18 2 @TOR 07-21 1 @TOR 07-23 2 vCLE 07-24 0 vCLE 07-26 0 vTEX 07-28 0 vTEX 07-29 2 vTEX 07-30
L5 40% 2/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 55% 11/20 2026 60% 46/77 2025 70% 16/23
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.8 Plate Appearances avg 3.8
4 4 5 6 3 5 3 1 3 4 Total Bases avg 1.9
2 0 6 2 2 2 0 0 0 5 Home Runs avg 0.2
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Strikeouts avg 0.6
1 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 1 0
Tonight's lines 2026-08-01 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-185 Hits OVER 1.5+300 Hits OVER 2.5+1100 Home Runs OVER 0.5+1173
Price legs
Splits Career n=230 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-30
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
57-219 .260 .425 .164 15 0 7 11 20.1% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
22-90 .244 .400 .156 8 0 2 5 21.1% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
35-129 .271 .442 .171 7 0 5 6 19.4% Last 15 days
recent form
11-37 .297 .514 .216 2 0 2 1 16.2% @ Tropicana Field
tonight's stadium
1200-7240 .166 .313 .147 157 0 303 274 19.7%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.261
wOBA 0.306
delta +0.045 hot
n=230 PA
Spray chart 230 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Jordan Hicks's mix Balls in play 230
HR rate 3.0%
Hard-hit (95+) 26%
Avg exit velo 82.8 mph
Ground ball 41%
Line drive 24%
Fly ball 22%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-07-30 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB 2026-07-29 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-07-28 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-07-26 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-07-24 5 2 0 0 0 1 2 2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 3 R · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-07-23 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 2B 2026-07-21 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-6 · 3 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB · 1 K 2026-07-18 5 2 1 0 1 0 1 2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-07-17 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 2026-07-17 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jonny DeLuca across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.