← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +3.0% edge model 74% · grade B
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (24% usage, .450 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 74% +3.0% 90% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 20% +2.8% 30% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Alec Burleson, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 1-1 50% -26.0% A 2-0 100% +304.0% B 4-0 100% +232.9%
Combined 7-1 · n=8 · ROI +185.9% · avg CLV +1.3 pts · beat close 100%
Matchup Alec Burleson (LHB) vs Merrill Kelly RHP favors batter favors pitcher Merrill Kelly RHP · season · 78.1 IP · 336 BF
Alec Burleson hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 87-307 .283 .476 .192 13 9.2% 16.9% vs RHP 71-214 .332 .584 .252 12 11.2% 19.2%
Pitch-type matchup Merrill Kelly's arsenal × how Alec Burleson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Merrill Kelly throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Changeup 27% 88.3 31% .390 TOP Four-Seam24% 91.9 18% .432 TOP Cutter19% 90.7 15% .399 Sinker 12% 92.3 7% .415 Curveball 10% 81.7 18% .378 Slider 9% 86.0 33% .328 Pitchout 0% 90.3 — —
Alec Burleson vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Changeup 374 19% .321 87.1 TOP Four-Seam833 18% .450 93.5 TOP Cutter243 16% .352 90.6 Sinker 462 11% .343 90.6 Curveball 194 20% .394 92.3 Slider 367 19% .420 91.7 Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits90% Total Bases60% Home Runs30% Singles40% Doubles20% Triples10% Strikeouts40% Walks30% RBIs70% Runs Scored50% Hits + Runs + RBIs100% Stolen Bases0%
90% 9/10 · L10 · avg 1.1
Our model 74% OVER +3.0% edge B
1 @NYM 06-11 1 @MIN 06-12 1 @MIN 06-13 1 @MIN 06-14 1 vSDP 06-15 1 vSDP 06-16 1 vSDP 06-17 0 @KCR 06-18 1 @KCR 06-19 3 @KCR 06-21
L5 80% 4/5 L10 90% 9/10 L20 95% 19/20 2026 69% 63/91 2025 66% 95/144
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.6 Plate Appearances avg 4.6
4 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 4 6 Total Bases avg 2.4
4 4 1 4 2 1 1 0 2 5 Home Runs avg 0.3
1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.6
0 2 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 10% — +350 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER B 74% +3.0% -300 +0.0 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 32% +1.1% +219 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 7% -4.5% +750 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 20% +2.8% +470 +0.5 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 15% — +145 -0.9 — 1.5 — PASS 11% — +380 +0.8 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 55% — -110 +0.0 — 1.5 — B 13% — +475 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — PASS 47% — +120 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -300 +219 +750 +470
Price legs
Splits Career n=338 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-19
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
87-307 .283 .476 .192 20 0 13 31 16.9% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
16-93 .172 .226 .054 2 0 1 4 11.8% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
71-214 .332 .584 .252 18 0 12 27 19.2% Last 15 days
recent form
12-52 .231 .596 .365 4 0 5 3 15.4% vs Merrill Kelly
tonight's starting pitcher
1-8 .125 .125 .000 0 0 0 1 0.0% @ Busch Stadium
tonight's stadium
1074-3405 .315 .428 .113 385 0 0 191 14.2%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.364
wOBA 0.347
delta −0.017 due
n=337 PA
Spray chart 693 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Merrill Kelly's mix Balls in play 693
HR rate 4.8%
Hard-hit (95+) 46%
Avg exit velo 91.2 mph
Ground ball 41%
Line drive 23%
Fly ball 29%
// PLAYER DNA
No statistically significant HR signature found at current sample size. We won't fabricate a pattern — most hitters need at least a half-season of data before factor lifts stabilize.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3-for-5 · 1 3B · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB 2026-06-19 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 2B 2026-06-18 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-17 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-16 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-5 2026-06-15 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI 2026-06-14 4 1 0 0 1 0 2 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K 2026-06-13 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-5 · 1 R 2026-06-12 5 1 0 0 1 1 2 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-11 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Alec Burleson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
