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Hits UNDER 0.5 +20.7% edge model 63% · grade S
Why: struggles vs the Changeup (19% usage, .237 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits UNDER 0.5 63% +20.7% 60% STRONG Home Runs UNDER 0.5 93% +2.5% 90% LEAN
Matchup Eric Wagaman (RHB) vs Jesús Luzardo LHP favors batter favors pitcher Jesús Luzardo LHP · season · 101.9 IP · 438 BF
Eric Wagaman hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 8-31 .258 .452 .194 2 11.4% 25.8% vs LHP 6-18 .333 .667 .333 2 14.3% 27.8%
Pitch-type matchup Jesús Luzardo's arsenal × how Eric Wagaman hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Jesús Luzardo throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Sweeper 33% 86.1 44% .346 TOP Four-Seam31% 96.6 16% .392 Changeup 19% 87.3 36% .327 TOP Sinker12% 95.8 13% .353 Slider 5% 86.4 32% .352
Eric Wagaman vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Sweeper 191 28% .344 84.3 TOP Four-Seam597 17% .425 94.7 Changeup 165 22% .237 82.3 TOP Sinker359 10% .381 93.4 Slider 350 32% .344 89.8
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits40% Total Bases10% Home Runs10% Singles30% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts30% Walks20% RBIs20% Runs Scored20% Hits + Runs + RBIs40% Stolen Bases0%
40% 4/10 · L10 · avg 0.4
Our model 63% UNDER +20.7% edge S
0 @CIN 06-15 1 @CIN 06-16 1 @PHI 06-18 0 @PHI 06-20 0 @PHI 06-21 0 vCHC 06-23 1 vCHC 06-24 0 vCHC 06-24 1 vCHC 06-25 0 vPHI 06-27
L5 40% 2/5 L10 40% 4/10 L20 45% 9/20 2026 47% 15/32 2025 61% 89/145
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 1.9 Plate Appearances avg 1.9
1 2 1 4 1 1 3 2 3 1 Total Bases avg 0.7
0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Strikeouts avg 0.3
0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-28 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't +135 -600 +1750 -1000
Price legs
Splits Career n=35 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-25
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
8-31 .258 .452 .194 0 0 2 4 25.8% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
6-18 .333 .667 .333 0 0 2 3 27.8% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
2-13 .154 .154 .000 0 0 0 1 23.1% Last 15 days
recent form
4-18 .222 .389 .167 0 0 1 2 27.8% vs Jesús Luzardo
tonight's starting pitcher
5-12 .417 .750 .333 1 0 1 2 25.0% vs PHI
tonight's opponent (full roster)
12-40 .300 .500 .200 2 0 2 3 17.5% @ Citi Field
tonight's stadium
86-907 .095 .350 .255 0 0 77 111 14.7%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.303
wOBA 0.308
delta +0.005 hot
n=35 PA
Spray chart 421 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Jesús Luzardo's mix Balls in play 421
HR rate 2.4%
Hard-hit (95+) 48%
Avg exit velo 90.8 mph
Ground ball 44%
Line drive 26%
Fly ball 24%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-27 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-25 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-24 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-06-24 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-23 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-21 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-06-20 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-06-18 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-1 · 1 RBI 2026-06-16 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-2 · 1 K 2026-06-15 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-0 · 1 BB
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Eric Wagaman across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
