Julio Rodríguez

CF · RHB · RHP · SEA

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

MIN

Starter

Taj Bradley (RHP)

Stadium

T-Mobile Park

Model HR%

20.6%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Julio Rodríguez, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	3-0	100%	+61.1%
A	1-1	50%	+57.0%
B	0-3	0%	-100.0%

Combined 4-4 · n=8 · ROI -0.3% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Julio Rodríguez (RHB) vs Taj Bradley RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Taj Bradley RHP · season · 121.2 IP · 521 BF

BAA

.211

wOBA

.300

SLG

.365

ISO

.154

WHIP

1.25

HR/9

1.26

BB%

10.2%

27.5%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.5%

HH%

45.7%

FB%

38.1%

HR/FB%

16.0%

Julio Rodríguez hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	103-410	.251	.415	.163	17	8.1%	22.2%
vs RHP	73-301	.243	.365	.123	8	6.8%	23.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Taj Bradley's arsenal × how Julio Rodríguez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Taj Bradley throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	42%	96.3	15%	.383
Cutter	22%	89.5	32%	.350
TOPSplitter	17%	91.0	27%	.306
TOPCurveball	13%	81.7	38%	.344
Sinker	6%	96.0	12%	.394

Julio Rodríguez vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1024	26%	.514	97.1
Cutter	340	24%	.336	89.0
TOPSplitter	125	41%	.569	92.4
TOPCurveball	167	34%	.358	86.0
Sinker	662	9%	.358	91.4

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.2

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.5

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	79%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=446 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-07-31

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	103-410	.251	.415	.163	16	17	36	22.2%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	30-109	.275	.550	.275	3	9	14	19.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	73-301	.243	.365	.123	13	8	22	23.3%
Last 15 days recent form	10-52	.192	.327	.135	1	2	2	17.3%
vs Taj Bradley tonight's starting pitcher	4-12	.333	.667	.333	1	1	0	8.3%
vs MIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	18-58	.310	.552	.241	5	3	4	17.2%
@ T-Mobile Park tonight's stadium	522-2241	.233	.353	.120	214	18	316	21.6%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.355

wOBA0.343

delta−0.012 due

n=446 PA

Spray chart

860 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph blowing out

Balls in play860

HR rate6.3%

Hard-hit (95+)44%

Avg exit velo90.8 mph

Ground ball45%

Line drive22%

Fly ball27%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

-31.5%significant

n=450 games · 6/58 HR when active

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+24.2%significant

n=445 games · 63/329 HR when active

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+18.9%small sample

n=445 games · 16/74 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-28

// TONIGHT

0 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning against

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

−31% HR rate when playing at home.
−20% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−31%

58 yes / 392 no · 80 HRs

Playing at hometonight

−31%

233 yes / 217 no · 80 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+24%

329 yes / 116 no · 80 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−22%

15 yes / 434 no · 80 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)tonight

−20%

274 yes / 173 no · 80 HRs

// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+19%

65 yes / 365 no · 76 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+19%

74 yes / 371 no · 80 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−16%

44 yes / 403 no · 80 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−15%

188 yes / 262 no · 80 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−14%

69 yes / 317 no · 67 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−14%

225 yes / 216 no · 79 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+13%

188 yes / 257 no · 79 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+13%

325 yes / 125 no · 80 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

+13%

7 yes / 443 no · 80 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

+9%

3 yes / 427 no · 76 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+9%

74 yes / 216 no · 47 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+7%

161 yes / 289 no · 80 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

−5%

89 yes / 360 no · 80 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

141 yes / 309 no · 80 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

1 yes / 444 no · 80 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

neutral

362 yes / 87 no · 80 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

99 yes / 350 no · 80 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

88 yes / 361 no · 80 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

neutral

62 yes / 359 no · 73 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

neutral

217 yes / 232 no · 80 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

184 yes / 256 no · 79 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 450 no · 80 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-01	5	1	0	0	2	0	1-for-3 · 1 RBI · 2 BB
2026-07-31	4	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 SB · 2 K
2026-07-30	5	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-5 · 1 K
2026-07-29	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-07-28	4	2	0	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB
2026-07-27	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-07-26	5	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-07-25	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-24	5	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-5
2026-07-22	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Julio Rodríguez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.