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Julio Rodríguez
CF · RHB · RHP · SEA
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Julio Rodríguez, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 4-1 | 80% | +26.3% |
| A | 3-4 | 43% | +5.4% |
| B | 2-11 | 15% | -55.1% |
Combined 9-16 · n=25 · ROI -21.9% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Julio Rodríguez (RHB) vs Yusei Kikuchi favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Yusei Kikuchi's arsenal × how Julio Rodríguez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=624 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-09-14
xStats luck
xwOBA0.336
wOBA0.310
delta−0.026 due
n=624 PA
Spray chart
973 balls in play since 2025Balls in play973
HR rate6.1%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo90.8 mph
Ground ball45%
Line drive23%
Fly ball26%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-30.4%significant
n=494 games · 8/73 HR when active
+20.9%significant
n=493 games · 44/226 HR when active
-11.0%small sample
n=493 games · 15/97 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−30%
73 yes / 421 no · 86 HRs
Playing at home
−27%
255 yes / 239 no · 86 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−22%
15 yes / 478 no · 86 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+21%
226 yes / 267 no · 86 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+20%
76 yes / 398 no · 82 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−19%
54 yes / 437 no · 86 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−17%
299 yes / 192 no · 86 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−13%
220 yes / 274 no · 86 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−11%
97 yes / 396 no · 86 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−11%
248 yes / 234 no · 85 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+10%
200 yes / 289 no · 85 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+9%
3 yes / 471 no · 82 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+9%
352 yes / 142 no · 86 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+8%
368 yes / 123 no · 86 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+8%
84 yes / 407 no · 86 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+7%
401 yes / 92 no · 86 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−7%
92 yes / 235 no · 53 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−6%
109 yes / 384 no · 86 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−5%
200 yes / 283 no · 85 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
67 yes / 398 no · 79 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
10 yes / 484 no · 86 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 490 no · 86 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
203 yes / 291 no · 86 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
90 yes / 403 no · 86 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
153 yes / 341 no · 86 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
71 yes / 350 no · 72 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 494 no · 86 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Julio Rodríguez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.