Wilyer Abreu

RF · LHB · LHP · BOS

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

Starter

Griffin Jax (RHP)

Stadium

Tropicana Field

Model HR%

13.7%

Model Hits%

65.1%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+2.9% edgemodel 65% · grade PASS

Why: strong vs the Sweeper (39% usage, .486 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	65%	+2.9%	60%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	14%	-3.5%	10%	PASS

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Wilyer Abreu, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	12-9	57%	+48.1%
A	4-6	40%	-40.2%
B	8-10	44%	-8.1%

Combined 24-25 · n=49 · ROI +9.4% · avg CLV -0.8 pts · beat close 31%

Matchup

Wilyer Abreu (LHB) vs Griffin Jax RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Griffin Jax RHP · season · 101.2 IP · 435 BF

BAA

.230

wOBA

.310

SLG

.380

ISO

.150

WHIP

1.25

HR/9

1.33

BB%

8.1%

25.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.0%

HH%

39.5%

FB%

32.6%

HR/FB%

19.7%

Wilyer Abreu hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	147-597	.246	.446	.199	25	10.8%	22.8%
vs RHP	95-415	.229	.436	.207	19	10.4%	24.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Griffin Jax's arsenal × how Wilyer Abreu hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Griffin Jax throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSweeper	39%	87.9	43%	.416
TOPChangeup	21%	92.2	45%	.323
TOPFour-Seam	19%	96.8	17%	.495
TOPSinker	14%	96.3	15%	.329
Cutter	5%	93.2	21%	.294
Curveball	3%	85.7	40%	.483

Wilyer Abreu vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSweeper	116	25%	.486	84.2
TOPChangeup	282	28%	.403	89.8
TOPFour-Seam	1038	20%	.360	91.0
TOPSinker	326	17%	.368	87.4
Cutter	176	9%	.419	93.6
Curveball	139	19%	.573	93.3

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.7

Our model65% OVER+2.9% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1

Plate Appearancesavg 4.1

Hitsavg 0.7

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.2

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.9

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+450	-0.9	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	65%	+2.9%	-165	+1.9	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	23%	+1.6%	+340	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	14%	-3.5%	+480	+1.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	10%	—	+175	+3.7	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	7%	—	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	45%	—	+130	+0.9	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+900	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	33%	—	+175	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=669 PA · 2026-03-21 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	147-597	.246	.446	.199	36	4	25	72	22.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	52-182	.286	.467	.181	13	1	6	24	19.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	95-415	.229	.436	.207	23	3	19	48	24.3%
Last 15 days recent form	8-42	.190	.310	.119	2	0	1	4	21.4%
vs Griffin Jax tonight's starting pitcher	3-10	.300	.600	.300	0	0	1	0	30.0%
@ Tropicana Field tonight's stadium	324-2358	.137	.213	.075	178	0	0	0	37.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.334

wOBA0.326

delta−0.008 due

n=668 PA

Spray chart

748 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play748

HR rate6.4%

Hard-hit (95+)45%

Avg exit velo90.4 mph

Ground ball33%

Line drive20%

Fly ball37%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	4	0	0	0	2	2	0-for-2 · 2 BB · 2 K
2026-09-18	5	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-5 · 3 K
2026-09-17	4	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-09-16	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4 · 1 R
2026-09-15	4	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-09-13	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-12	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI
2026-09-11	4	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI
2026-09-09	4	1	0	1	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-09-08	4	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 BB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Wilyer Abreu across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.