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Bobby Witt Jr.
SS · RHB · RHP · KCR
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+3.1% edgemodel 23% · grade B
Why: Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340): +74.1% lift over 95 games.
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Bobby Witt Jr., by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-8 | 38% | -18.9% |
| A | 3-3 | 50% | -21.8% |
| B | 6-5 | 55% | +5.3% |
Combined 14-16 · n=30 · ROI -10.6% · avg CLV -1.1 pts · beat close 25%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=425 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-07-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.370
wOBA0.354
delta−0.016 due
n=424 PA
Spray chart
831 balls in play since 2025Balls in play831
HR rate4.5%
Hard-hit (95+)53%
Avg exit velo93.0 mph
Ground ball37%
Line drive27%
Fly ball27%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+74.1%significant
n=442 games · 24/95 HR when active
+56.9%significant
n=442 games · 21/89 HR when active
+35.6%significant
n=442 games · 18/86 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
4 / 5HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +57% HR rate when vs hr-prone pitcher (hr/pa > 3.8%).
- +38% HR rate when playing at home.
- −35% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- +25% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
1.74× HR rate
95 yes / 347 no · 69 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)tonight
1.57× HR rate
89 yes / 353 no · 69 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+49%
164 yes / 267 no · 67 HRs
Playing at hometonight
+38%
223 yes / 219 no · 69 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+36%
86 yes / 356 no · 69 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
0.65× HR rate
350 yes / 91 no · 69 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−33%
130 yes / 312 no · 69 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−28%
224 yes / 213 no · 69 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−27%
318 yes / 124 no · 69 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+26%
245 yes / 187 no · 65 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+25%
190 yes / 252 no · 69 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−22%
16 yes / 425 no · 69 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphtonight
+22%
65 yes / 310 no · 56 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−21%
61 yes / 378 no · 69 HRs
// 14 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−17%
50 yes / 392 no · 69 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+15%
207 yes / 235 no · 69 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−13%
47 yes / 392 no · 69 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+12%
307 yes / 133 no · 69 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−10%
3 yes / 428 no · 68 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−8%
64 yes / 352 no · 65 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+8%
16 yes / 426 no · 69 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+8%
4 yes / 438 no · 69 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−6%
74 yes / 231 no · 44 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 439 no · 69 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
59 yes / 381 no · 69 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
96 yes / 335 no · 68 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 442 no · 69 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Bobby Witt Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.