Bobby Witt Jr.

SS · RHB · RHP · KCR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

PIT

Starter

Lake Bachar (RHP)

Stadium

PNC Park

Model HR%

17.8%

Model Hits%

65.3%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 1.5+8.8% edgemodel 75% · grade S

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 1.5	75%	+8.8%	80%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	18%	+4.9%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Bobby Witt Jr., by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	10-11	48%	-6.3%
A	7-10	41%	+24.8%
B	6-11	35%	-21.9%

Combined 23-32 · n=55 · ROI -1.5% · avg CLV -0.6 pts · beat close 41%

Matchup

Bobby Witt Jr. (RHB) vs Lake Bachar RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Lake Bachar RHP · season · 79.1 IP · 340 BF

BAA

.190

wOBA

.308

SLG

.347

ISO

.157

WHIP

1.23

HR/9

1.48

BB%

11.8%

25.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.8%

HH%

32.9%

FB%

41.9%

HR/FB%

18.6%

Bobby Witt Jr. hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	145-540	.269	.430	.161	18	11.3%	20.0%
vs RHP	106-395	.268	.430	.162	14	10.6%	21.0%

Pitch-type matchup

Lake Bachar's arsenal × how Bobby Witt Jr. hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Lake Bachar throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	36%	94.8	21%	.423
TOPSweeper	25%	86.4	28%	.405
TOPSlider	24%	89.5	41%	.326
TOPSplitter	13%	83.7	33%	.265
Curveball	2%	85.5	33%	.417

Bobby Witt Jr. vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1146	21%	.483	96.7
TOPSweeper	323	28%	.382	88.2
TOPSlider	581	28%	.387	94.0
TOPSplitter	81	33%	.404	92.3
Curveball	158	15%	.428	88.3

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model35% UNDER+3.5% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5

Plate Appearancesavg 4.5

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 1.2

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.7

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	9%	—	+300	-1.7	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	B	35%	+3.5%	+220	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	S	75%	+8.8%	-192	-0.9	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	18%	+4.9%	+676	+1.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	11%	—	+178	+3.7	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	44%	—	-130	+1.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+475	+0.7	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	35%	—	+109	+1.3	Sign in to save	—
2.5	—	PASS	23%	—	+220	-2.1	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=609 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	145-540	.269	.430	.161	31	1	18	69	20.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	39-145	.269	.428	.159	9	1	4	22	17.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	106-395	.268	.430	.162	22	0	14	47	21.0%
Last 15 days recent form	9-45	.200	.311	.111	2	0	1	9	24.4%
vs PIT tonight's opponent (full roster)	8-31	.258	.419	.161	2	0	1	2	19.4%
@ PNC Park tonight's stadium	149-596	.250	.250	.000	0	0	0	0	0.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.375

wOBA0.346

delta−0.029 due

n=608 PA

Spray chart

953 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph blowing out

Balls in play953

HR rate4.4%

Hard-hit (95+)51%

Avg exit velo92.5 mph

Ground ball37%

Line drive27%

Fly ball28%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+62.8%significant

n=479 games · 23/96 HR when active

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+59.1%significant

n=479 games · 22/93 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+46.7%significant

n=479 games · 20/90 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

1 / 4HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning against

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+58% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
−31% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
−30% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
−24% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

1.63× HR rate

96 yes / 383 no · 74 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

1.59× HR rate

93 yes / 386 no · 74 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)tonight

1.58× HR rate

175 yes / 293 no · 72 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+47%

90 yes / 389 no · 74 HRs

Playing at home

+42%

245 yes / 234 no · 74 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight

−31%

382 yes / 96 no · 74 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−30%

342 yes / 137 no · 74 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight

−30%

142 yes / 337 no · 74 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+28%

267 yes / 201 no · 69 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−27%

234 yes / 240 no · 74 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−24%

17 yes / 461 no · 74 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)tonight

−24%

64 yes / 412 no · 74 HRs

// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+20%

215 yes / 264 no · 74 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+18%

343 yes / 134 no · 74 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+17%

69 yes / 334 no · 59 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−17%

58 yes / 421 no · 74 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+17%

219 yes / 260 no · 74 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−16%

50 yes / 426 no · 74 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

−10%

83 yes / 250 no · 49 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−10%

3 yes / 465 no · 73 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−8%

118 yes / 350 no · 73 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+8%

16 yes / 463 no · 74 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−8%

78 yes / 375 no · 70 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−8%

64 yes / 413 no · 74 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

5 yes / 474 no · 74 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 478 no · 74 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

1 yes / 476 no · 74 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	5	3	0	0	0	3-for-5 · 2 R · 1 SB
2026-09-18	4	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R
2026-09-17	4	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-16	5	0	0	2	1	0-for-3 · 1 SB · 2 BB · 1 K
2026-09-15	4	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 SB
2026-09-13	5	1	0	1	3	1-for-4 · 1 BB · 3 K
2026-09-12	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-09-11	5	0	0	2	1	0-for-3 · 2 BB · 1 K
2026-09-09	4	2	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-08	5	0	0	1	0	0-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 BB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Bobby Witt Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.