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Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 69% -0.3% 70% PASS Home Runs OVER 0.5 18% -1.5% 30% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Curtis Mead, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 3-1 75% +69.1% A 3-4 43% -16.3% B 6-1 86% +121.3%
Combined 12-6 · n=18 · ROI +56.2% · avg CLV -0.1 pts · beat close 27%
Matchup Curtis Mead (RHB) vs Mitch Keller RHP favors batter favors pitcher Mitch Keller RHP · season · 101.4 IP · 436 BF
Curtis Mead hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 54-245 .220 .461 .241 15 12.2% 20.8% vs RHP 29-140 .207 .450 .243 9 13.6% 20.7%
Pitch-type matchup Mitch Keller's arsenal × how Curtis Mead hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Mitch Keller throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 35% 93.9 14% .396 Sweeper 19% 82.4 25% .359 TOP Sinker18% 92.7 13% .335 Slider 12% 87.1 24% .358 Changeup 8% 89.1 17% .413 Curveball 7% 77.7 31% .387 Cutter 2% 90.2 23% .305
Curtis Mead vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 498 12% .344 87.6 Sweeper 128 28% .321 90.0 TOP Sinker315 11% .374 87.3 Slider 259 26% .345 86.1 Changeup 145 14% .353 85.7 Curveball 91 23% .269 88.2 Cutter 142 23% .433 91.7
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases60% Home Runs30% Singles30% Doubles10% Triples10% Strikeouts60% Walks20% RBIs30% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases10%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 0.9
Our model 69% OVER -0.3% edge PASS
1 vPHI 06-22 0 vPHI 06-23 1 vPHI 06-24 1 vPHI 06-25 1 @BAL 06-26 0 @BAL 06-27 1 @BAL 06-28 2 @BOS 06-29 0 @BOS 06-30 2 @BOS 07-01
L5 60% 3/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 55% 11/20 2026 55% 45/82 2025 48% 45/93
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.2 Plate Appearances avg 4.2
5 5 2 5 4 2 4 4 5 6 Total Bases avg 2.1
4 0 4 4 1 0 2 2 0 4 Home Runs avg 0.3
1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.1
1 4 0 1 1 0 0 2 2 0
Tonight's lines 2026-07-03 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 49% — -105 +0.0 Sign in to save —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 36% — +120 +2.0 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -225 +240 +1000 +420
Price legs
Splits Career n=279 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-07-01
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
54-245 .220 .461 .241 12 1 15 34 20.8% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
25-105 .238 .476 .238 5 1 6 12 21.0% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
29-140 .207 .450 .243 7 0 9 22 20.7% Last 15 days
recent form
10-49 .204 .449 .245 1 1 3 2 26.5% vs PIT
tonight's opponent (full roster)
2-12 .167 .250 .083 1 0 0 1 16.7% @ Nationals Park
tonight's stadium
1090-5958 .183 .492 .309 0 0 613 624 29.2%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.313
wOBA 0.312
delta −0.001 due
n=276 PA
Spray chart 375 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Mitch Keller's mix Balls in play 375
HR rate 4.8%
Hard-hit (95+) 39%
Avg exit velo 86.8 mph
Ground ball 38%
Line drive 22%
Fly ball 31%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-07-01 6 2 0 1 0 1 0 2-for-5 · 1 3B · 2 R · 1 BB 2026-06-30 5 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-29 4 2 0 0 0 0 2 2-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-28 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 2B 2026-06-27 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-06-26 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-25 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-24 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-23 5 0 0 0 0 0 4 0-for-5 · 4 K 2026-06-22 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Curtis Mead across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
