Ceddanne Rafaela

CF · RHB · RHP · BOS

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

LAD

Starter

Emmet Sheehan (RHP)

Stadium

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Model HR%

12.4%

Model Hits%

67.3%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+6.0% edgemodel 67% · grade A

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (46% usage, .401 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	67%	+6.0%	90%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	12%	+1.8%	50%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Ceddanne Rafaela, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	3-2	60%	-8.6%
A	7-2	78%	+61.5%
B	4-1	80%	+72.8%

Combined 14-5 · n=19 · ROI +46.0% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 38%

Matchup

Ceddanne Rafaela (RHB) vs Emmet Sheehan RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Emmet Sheehan RHP · season · 100.7 IP · 433 BF

BAA

.237

wOBA

.299

SLG

.450

ISO

.214

WHIP

1.32

HR/9

1.61

BB%

9.2%

26.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.6%

HH%

40.1%

FB%

43.5%

HR/FB%

17.8%

Ceddanne Rafaela hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	124-427	.290	.464	.173	13	5.9%	21.8%
vs RHP	90-310	.290	.429	.139	8	5.2%	19.4%

Pitch-type matchup

Emmet Sheehan's arsenal × how Ceddanne Rafaela hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Emmet Sheehan throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	46%	95.1	25%	.437
TOPSlider	31%	87.3	39%	.330
TOPChangeup	16%	85.6	26%	.311
Curveball	7%	76.7	24%	.305
Fastball	0%	72.8	—	—

Ceddanne Rafaela vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	887	19%	.401	91.8
TOPSlider	488	28%	.362	89.0
TOPChangeup	318	33%	.357	87.5
Curveball	187	37%	.321	84.2
Fastball	3	0%	.466	101.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.6

Our model67% OVER+6.0% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 1.6

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 3.6

Home Runsavg 0.6

Strikeoutsavg 1.1

Walksavg 0.0

Tonight's lines

2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+494	+0.4	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	67%	+6.0%	-159	-3.5	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	26%	+0.7%	+300	-1.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-1.8%	+1200	-1.4	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	12%	+1.8%	+838	-0.3	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	8%	—	+318	-6.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+900	-2.5	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	49%	—	+100	+0.7	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+600	-1.1	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	35%	—	+160	-0.3	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=454 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-31

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	124-427	.290	.464	.173	27	4	13	27	21.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	34-117	.291	.556	.265	8	4	5	10	28.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	90-310	.290	.429	.139	19	0	8	17	19.4%
Last 15 days recent form	18-55	.327	.600	.273	3	0	4	0	23.6%
vs LAD tonight's opponent (full roster)	5-25	.200	.360	.160	1	0	1	2	36.0%
@ UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium tonight's stadium	54-90	.600	1.200	.600	0	0	18	0	20.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.271

wOBA0.320

delta+0.049 hot

n=454 PA

Spray chart

785 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play785

HR rate3.8%

Hard-hit (95+)35%

Avg exit velo86.5 mph

Ground ball43%

Line drive24%

Fly ball26%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	K	Outcomes
2026-08-01	4	2	0	2	0	2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R
2026-07-31	5	3	0	1	1	3-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-07-30	4	2	1	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-07-29	5	2	1	0	3	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 3 K
2026-07-28	4	1	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-27	4	1	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 4 RBI · 1 R
2026-07-26	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-07-25	4	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-24	5	2	0	1	2	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-07-22	4	2	0	1	0	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Ceddanne Rafaela across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.

← BACK TO SLATE

Ceddanne Rafaela

CF · RHB · RHP · BOS

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

LAD

Starter

Emmet Sheehan (RHP)

Stadium

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Model HR%

12.4%

Model Hits%

67.3%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+6.0% edgemodel 67% · grade A

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (46% usage, .401 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	67%	+6.0%	90%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	12%	+1.8%	50%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Ceddanne Rafaela, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	3-2	60%	-8.6%
A	7-2	78%	+61.5%
B	4-1	80%	+72.8%

Combined 14-5 · n=19 · ROI +46.0% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 38%

Matchup

Ceddanne Rafaela (RHB) vs Emmet Sheehan RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Emmet Sheehan RHP · season · 100.7 IP · 433 BF

BAA

.237

wOBA

.299

SLG

.450

ISO

.214

WHIP

1.32

HR/9

1.61

BB%

9.2%

26.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.6%

HH%

40.1%

FB%

43.5%

HR/FB%

17.8%

Ceddanne Rafaela hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	124-427	.290	.464	.173	13	5.9%	21.8%
vs RHP	90-310	.290	.429	.139	8	5.2%	19.4%

Pitch-type matchup

Emmet Sheehan's arsenal × how Ceddanne Rafaela hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Emmet Sheehan throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	46%	95.1	25%	.437
TOPSlider	31%	87.3	39%	.330
TOPChangeup	16%	85.6	26%	.311
Curveball	7%	76.7	24%	.305
Fastball	0%	72.8	—	—

Ceddanne Rafaela vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	887	19%	.401	91.8
TOPSlider	488	28%	.362	89.0
TOPChangeup	318	33%	.357	87.5
Curveball	187	37%	.321	84.2
Fastball	3	0%	.466	101.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.6

Our model67% OVER+6.0% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 1.6

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 3.6

Home Runsavg 0.6

Strikeoutsavg 1.1

Walksavg 0.0

Tonight's lines

2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+494	+0.4	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	67%	+6.0%	-159	-3.5	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	26%	+0.7%	+300	-1.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-1.8%	+1200	-1.4	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	12%	+1.8%	+838	-0.3	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	8%	—	+318	-6.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+900	-2.5	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	49%	—	+100	+0.7	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+600	-1.1	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	35%	—	+160	-0.3	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=454 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-31

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	124-427	.290	.464	.173	27	4	13	27	21.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	34-117	.291	.556	.265	8	4	5	10	28.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	90-310	.290	.429	.139	19	0	8	17	19.4%
Last 15 days recent form	18-55	.327	.600	.273	3	0	4	0	23.6%
vs LAD tonight's opponent (full roster)	5-25	.200	.360	.160	1	0	1	2	36.0%
@ UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium tonight's stadium	54-90	.600	1.200	.600	0	0	18	0	20.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.271

wOBA0.320

delta+0.049 hot

n=454 PA

Spray chart

785 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play785

HR rate3.8%

Hard-hit (95+)35%

Avg exit velo86.5 mph

Ground ball43%

Line drive24%

Fly ball26%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	K	Outcomes
2026-08-01	4	2	0	2	0	2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R
2026-07-31	5	3	0	1	1	3-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-07-30	4	2	1	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-07-29	5	2	1	0	3	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 3 K
2026-07-28	4	1	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-27	4	1	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 4 RBI · 1 R
2026-07-26	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-07-25	4	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-24	5	2	0	1	2	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-07-22	4	2	0	1	0	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Ceddanne Rafaela across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.