Spencer Torkelson

1B · RHB · RHP · DET

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

NYY

Starter

Gerrit Cole (RHP)

Stadium

Comerica Park

Model HR%

25.2%

Model Hits%

66.9%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+10.8% edgemodel 25% · grade S

Why: Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260): +42.6% lift over 83 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (55% usage, .476 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	25%	+10.8%	30%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 0.5	67%	+10.8%	50%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Spencer Torkelson, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	5-7	42%	+25.0%
A	1-4	20%	-77.3%
B	0-2	0%	-100.0%

Combined 6-13 · n=19 · ROI -15.1% · avg CLV -1.2 pts · beat close 20%

Matchup

Spencer Torkelson (RHB) vs Gerrit Cole RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Gerrit Cole RHP · season · 28.4 IP · 122 BF

BAA

.203

wOBA

.258

SLG

.372

ISO

.168

WHIP

1.13

HR/9

1.58

BB%

7.4%

22.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

0.0%

HH%

31.0%

FB%

42.3%

HR/FB%

16.7%

Spencer Torkelson hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	55-275	.200	.411	.211	14	12.1%	35.3%
vs RHP	42-211	.199	.431	.232	13	11.0%	35.5%

Pitch-type matchup

Gerrit Cole's arsenal × how Spencer Torkelson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Gerrit Cole throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	55%	96.2	17%	.245
TOPSlider	14%	88.8	22%	.126
TOPSinker	12%	95.8	14%	.003
Knuckle Curve	11%	81.8	0%	.010
Changeup	8%	85.8	0%	.443

Spencer Torkelson vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	956	16%	.476	94.7
TOPSlider	584	35%	.367	89.6
TOPSinker	732	10%	.421	90.8
Knuckle Curve	36	22%	.452	91.3
Changeup	389	36%	.417	86.3

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

50%5/10 · L10 · avg 0.6

Our model67% OVER+10.8% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0

Plate Appearancesavg 4.0

Hitsavg 0.6

Singlesavg 0.2

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.6

Home Runsavg 0.3

Strikeoutsavg 1.5

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	A	7%	—	+450	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	67%	+10.8%	-128	+0.6	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	23%	+1.9%	+380	-0.9	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	4%	-0.7%	+2000	-0.6	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	25%	+10.8%	+593	-0.6	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	17%	—	+210	+0.0	—
1.5	—	S	15%	—	+600	+0.0	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	41%	—	+150	+0.0	—
1.5	—	PASS	7%	—	+1000	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	A	44%	—	+150	+0.0	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=313 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	55-275	.200	.411	.211	16	14	38	35.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	13-64	.203	.344	.141	6	1	12	34.4%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	42-211	.199	.431	.232	10	13	26	35.5%
Last 15 days recent form	6-38	.158	.421	.263	1	3	5	44.7%
vs Gerrit Cole tonight's starting pitcher	2-6	.333	.833	.500	0	1	0	50.0%
vs NYY tonight's opponent (full roster)	9-53	.170	.302	.132	1	2	7	24.5%
@ Comerica Park tonight's stadium	512-2560	.200	.337	.137	63	96	281	29.5%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.308

wOBA0.322

delta+0.014 hot

n=312 PA

Spray chart

611 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph cross-wind

Balls in play611

HR rate7.5%

Hard-hit (95+)44%

Avg exit velo90.1 mph

Ground ball28%

Line drive25%

Fly ball37%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+42.6%significant

n=430 games · 19/83 HR when active

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+39.6%significant

n=427 games · 20/91 HR when active

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+35.7%significant

n=367 games · 16/67 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

2 / 7FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning against

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

+37% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
+24% HR rate when ≥1 career hr vs this pitcher.

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+43%

83 yes / 347 no · 70 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+40%

91 yes / 336 no · 69 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+37%

165 yes / 266 no · 70 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+36%

67 yes / 300 no · 64 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+32%

206 yes / 225 no · 70 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+32%

82 yes / 213 no · 51 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+24%

36 yes / 395 no · 70 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+23%

47 yes / 382 no · 70 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−22%

268 yes / 161 no · 70 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+21%

277 yes / 145 no · 68 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−21%

331 yes / 100 no · 70 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+21%

181 yes / 238 no · 68 HRs

// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−18%

262 yes / 151 no · 69 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−17%

201 yes / 225 no · 69 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+16%

337 yes / 93 no · 70 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−15%

12 yes / 397 no · 68 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+14%

211 yes / 219 no · 70 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−10%

79 yes / 321 no · 68 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+8%

72 yes / 337 no · 68 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+5%

136 yes / 295 no · 70 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

218 yes / 213 no · 70 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

neutral

67 yes / 355 no · 68 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

19 yes / 411 no · 70 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

neutral

91 yes / 333 no · 69 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 422 no · 68 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 431 no · 70 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 431 no · 70 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	5	2	0	0	1	0	2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 BB
2026-06-20	4	1	1	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-19	3	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-06-17	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-06-16	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-15	5	1	0	1	1	3	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 3 K
2026-06-13	4	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-06-12	3	1	0	1	0	1	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-11	4	1	0	1	0	3	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 3 K
2026-06-10	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Spencer Torkelson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.