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Heriberto Hernández
LF · RHB · RHP · MIA
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+5.8% edgemodel 63% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (23% usage, .414 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Heriberto Hernández, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-9 | 50% | +2.3% |
| A | 11-7 | 61% | +63.7% |
| B | 9-7 | 56% | +230.7% |
Combined 29-23 · n=52 · ROI +93.9% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Heriberto Hernández (RHB) vs Walker Buehler RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Walker Buehler's arsenal × how Heriberto Hernández hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.9Plate Appearancesavg 4.9
Hitsavg 1.2
Singlesavg 1.2
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.2
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=479 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.342
wOBA0.334
delta−0.008 due
n=478 PA
Spray chart
480 balls in play since 2025Balls in play480
HR rate7.1%
Hard-hit (95+)48%
Avg exit velo91.2 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive21%
Fly ball30%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Heriberto Hernández across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.