← BACK TO SLATE
Francisco Alvarez
C · RHB · RHP · NYM
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Francisco Alvarez, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 11-13 | 46% | -17.8% |
| A | 1-14 | 7% | -48.1% |
| B | 3-14 | 18% | -53.9% |
Combined 15-41 · n=56 · ROI -36.9% · avg CLV -1.1 pts · beat close 50%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1Plate Appearancesavg 4.1
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 0.9
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.2
Walksavg 1.1
Splits
Career n=300 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-05
xStats luck
xwOBA0.328
wOBA0.347
delta+0.019 hot
n=297 PA
Spray chart
354 balls in play since 2025Balls in play354
HR rate6.5%
Hard-hit (95+)48%
Avg exit velo90.6 mph
Ground ball47%
Line drive21%
Fly ball26%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+38.0%significant
n=225 games · 22/111 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+38%
111 yes / 114 no · 37 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−27%
126 yes / 99 no · 37 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+23%
32 yes / 193 no · 37 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−22%
134 yes / 92 no · 37 HRs
// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Playing at home
−18%
118 yes / 108 no · 37 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−12%
37 yes / 189 no · 37 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
58 yes / 168 no · 37 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
97 yes / 129 no · 37 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Francisco Alvarez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.