Angel Martínez

LF · SHB · RHP · CLE

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

BOS

Starter

Sonny Gray (RHP)

Stadium

Fenway Park

Model HR%

8.7%

Model Hits%

65.1%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+8.0% edgemodel 65% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Curveball (18% usage, .432 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	65%	+8.0%	70%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	9%	+0.4%	20%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Angel Martínez, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	4-1	80%	+45.0%
A	5-4	56%	+186.9%
B	3-5	38%	+145.0%

Combined 12-10 · n=22 · ROI +139.4% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Angel Martínez (SHB) vs Sonny Gray RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Sonny Gray RHP · season · 163.5 IP · 703 BF

BAA

.235

wOBA

.303

SLG

.374

ISO

.139

WHIP

1.27

HR/9

0.94

BB%

8.0%

22.5%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.7%

HH%

39.5%

FB%

28.2%

HR/FB%

14.2%

Angel Martínez hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	238-1021	.233	.394	.161	34	5.8%	23.4%
vs RHP	145-689	.210	.366	.155	22	4.8%	24.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Sonny Gray's arsenal × how Angel Martínez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Sonny Gray throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	21%	91.7	17%	.413
Sweeper	18%	85.0	40%	.382
Sinker	18%	92.2	14%	.392
TOPCurveball	18%	80.1	30%	.403
Cutter	15%	88.1	17%	.342
Changeup	8%	86.3	26%	.440
Slider	1%	84.4	33%	.391
Slow Curve	0%	74.1	100%	—
Pitchout	0%	84.0	—	—

Angel Martínez vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	842	15%	.323	89.2
Sweeper	148	29%	.275	84.8
Sinker	328	12%	.265	87.0
TOPCurveball	215	28%	.432	86.3
Cutter	228	12%	.293	84.4
Changeup	370	20%	.310	82.8
Slider	278	20%	.414	86.5
Slow Curve	no sample
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.5

Our model65% OVER+8.0% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1

Plate Appearancesavg 4.1

Hitsavg 1.5

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.5

Total Basesavg 3.1

Home Runsavg 0.3

Strikeoutsavg 1.0

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-09-23 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	7%	—	+425	-1.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	65%	+8.0%	-133	-2.1	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	B	24%	+3.6%	+380	-0.9	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	9%	+0.4%	+1100	+2.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	6%	—	+315	-1.3	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	3%	—	+900	-1.1	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	52%	—	+138	-3.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	B	14%	—	+800	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	29%	—	+235	-1.9	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=1,084 PA · 2024-06-22 → 2026-09-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	238-1021	.233	.394	.161	52	5	34	63	23.4%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	93-332	.280	.452	.172	19	1	12	28	20.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	145-689	.210	.366	.155	33	4	22	35	24.8%
Last 15 days recent form	11-29	.379	.897	.517	4	1	3	0	24.1%
vs Sonny Gray tonight's starting pitcher	0-5	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	60.0%
vs BOS tonight's opponent (full roster)	4-24	.167	.167	.000	0	0	0	2	29.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.280

wOBA0.318

delta+0.038 hot

n=410 PA

Spray chart

654 balls in play since 2025· wind 17 mph blowing in

Balls in play654

HR rate4.7%

Hard-hit (95+)34%

Avg exit velo86.9 mph

Ground ball40%

Line drive24%

Fly ball28%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-22	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	3-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-09-20	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-3 · 2 K
2026-09-19	5	4	1	0	2	0	0	4-for-5 · 2 HR · 4 RBI · 3 R
2026-09-14	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-09-13	5	2	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 2 2B · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-12	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-11	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R
2026-09-08	5	2	0	1	0	0	2	2-for-5 · 1 3B · 2 R · 2 K
2026-09-07	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-06	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Angel Martínez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.