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Elly De La Cruz
SS · SHB · RHP · CIN
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs UNDER 0.5+2.3% edgemodel 88% · grade PASS
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Elly De La Cruz, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-2 | 71% | +31.2% |
| A | 4-4 | 50% | -5.8% |
| B | 5-2 | 71% | +176.1% |
Combined 14-8 · n=22 · ROI +63.8% · avg CLV -2.2 pts · beat close 27%
Matchup
Elly De La Cruz (SHB) vs Eury Pérez RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Eury Pérez's arsenal × how Elly De La Cruz hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 0.4
Singlesavg 0.2
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.0
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-08-17 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,364 PA · 2023-06-06 → 2026-08-14
xStats luck
xwOBA0.328
wOBA0.338
delta+0.010 hot
n=480 PA
Spray chart
760 balls in play since 2025· wind 2 mph cross-windBalls in play760
HR rate5.7%
Hard-hit (95+)47%
Avg exit velo91.9 mph
Ground ball49%
Line drive24%
Fly ball23%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-23.7%significant
n=302 games · 16/155 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY
No DNA factors in play tonight
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−26%
79 yes / 224 no · 37 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+25%
36 yes / 265 no · 37 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−24%
155 yes / 147 no · 37 HRs
// 9 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
−31%
12 yes / 290 no · 37 HRs
Playing at home
−11%
150 yes / 153 no · 37 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−10%
228 yes / 74 no · 37 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−9%
179 yes / 122 no · 37 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+5%
151 yes / 152 no · 37 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Elly De La Cruz across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.