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Riley Greene
LF · LHB · LHP · DET
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Riley Greene, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-2 | 33% | -47.6% |
| A | 1-3 | 25% | -62.5% |
| B | 2-3 | 40% | +90.4% |
Combined 4-8 · n=12 · ROI +4.9% · avg CLV +0.9 pts · beat close 50%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.2
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 0.8
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.6
Splits
Career n=2,271 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.349
wOBA0.343
delta−0.006 due
n=487 PA
Spray chart
739 balls in play since 2025Balls in play739
HR rate7.3%
Hard-hit (95+)50%
Avg exit velo90.7 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive23%
Fly ball33%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+96.1%significant
n=409 games · 53/299 HR when active
+55.7%significant
n=416 games · 37/196 HR when active
+48.3%significant
n=409 games · 13/56 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
1.96× HR rate
299 yes / 110 no · 61 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
1.95× HR rate
220 yes / 85 no · 46 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
1.56× HR rate
196 yes / 220 no · 62 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
1.50× HR rate
82 yes / 310 no · 59 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+48%
56 yes / 353 no · 61 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+48%
175 yes / 241 no · 62 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+34%
166 yes / 241 no · 61 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+31%
31 yes / 385 no · 62 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+28%
73 yes / 338 no · 61 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−24%
17 yes / 398 no · 62 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−23%
226 yes / 190 no · 62 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+23%
82 yes / 334 no · 62 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+23%
40 yes / 372 no · 62 HRs
Playing at home
−22%
211 yes / 205 no · 62 HRs
// 14 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+17%
314 yes / 102 no · 62 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−15%
258 yes / 154 no · 62 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−10%
111 yes / 305 no · 62 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+10%
211 yes / 200 no · 61 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+9%
249 yes / 152 no · 59 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−9%
61 yes / 300 no · 53 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+7%
73 yes / 314 no · 59 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
9 yes / 383 no · 59 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−5%
86 yes / 327 no · 61 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 415 no · 62 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
324 yes / 91 no · 62 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
6 yes / 410 no · 62 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 409 no · 61 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Riley Greene across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.