Spencer Jones

RF · LHB · LHP · NYY

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

Starter

Ian Seymour (LHP)

Stadium

Yankee Stadium

Model HR%

12.3%

Model Hits%

60.9%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+2.6% edgemodel 61% · grade PASS

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	61%	+2.6%	60%	LEAN
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	88%	+0.3%	80%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Spencer Jones, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	7-4	64%	+15.6%
A	5-4	56%	-3.3%
B	5-2	71%	+134.0%

Combined 17-10 · n=27 · ROI +40.0% · avg CLV -0.6 pts · beat close 27%

Matchup

Spencer Jones (LHB) vs Ian Seymour LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Ian Seymour LHP · season · 127.9 IP · 550 BF

BAA

.227

wOBA

.287

SLG

.436

ISO

.209

WHIP

1.24

HR/9

1.76

BB%

7.8%

28.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.9%

HH%

36.6%

FB%

45.3%

HR/FB%

19.2%

Spencer Jones hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	66-266	.248	.462	.214	14	9.8%	39.5%
vs LHP	20-50	.400	.700	.300	3	9.1%	34.0%

Pitch-type matchup

Ian Seymour's arsenal × how Spencer Jones hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Ian Seymour throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Changeup	32%	83.5	31%	.395
Four-Seam	29%	91.6	19%	.404
Cutter	16%	88.1	17%	.352
Sweeper	10%	81.4	38%	.340
Sinker	9%	90.4	12%	.370
Slider	3%	82.6	31%	.422
Curveball	1%	74.4	0%	.529

Spencer Jones vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Changeup	13	43%	—	106.0
Four-Seam	61	38%	.000	105.1
Cutter	10	17%	—	97.5
Sweeper	7	0%	.557	97.0
Sinker	22	9%	.333	92.3
Slider	23	56%	.572	95.3
Curveball	14	33%	—	—

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.7

Our model61% OVER+2.6% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2

Plate Appearancesavg 4.2

Hitsavg 0.7

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.4

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 1.7

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-09-24 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+525	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	61%	+2.6%	-140	+4.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	20%	-0.5%	+400	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	88%	+0.3%	-700	+2.7	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	8%	—	+200	+7.3	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+700	-1.8	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	42%	—	+180	-2.7	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+1100	-0.8	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	31%	—	+178	-2.8	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=295 PA · 2024-03-17 → 2026-09-22

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	66-266	.248	.462	.214	13	1	14	29	39.5%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	20-50	.400	.700	.300	4	1	3	5	34.0%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	46-216	.213	.407	.194	9	0	11	24	40.7%
Last 15 days recent form	12-46	.261	.413	.152	1	0	2	3	37.0%
@ Yankee Stadium tonight's stadium	4139-16255	.255	.400	.145	1342	145	242	2440	33.4%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.319

wOBA0.334

delta+0.015 hot

n=282 PA

Spray chart

158 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play158

HR rate8.9%

Hard-hit (95+)54%

Avg exit velo94.1 mph

Ground ball28%

Line drive27%

Fly ball39%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-23	5	1	1	0	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-22	3	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-3 · 1 SB
2026-09-22	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-20	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-18	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 1 RBI · 2 K
2026-09-16	6	0	0	0	0	5	0-for-6 · 5 K
2026-09-15	5	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-14	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-13	3	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-3
2026-09-12	4	2	0	0	0	2	2-for-4 · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Spencer Jones across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.