Gunnar Henderson

SS · LHB · RHP · BAL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

PHI

Starter

Zack Wheeler (RHP)

Stadium

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Model HR%

14.5%

Model Hits%

66.2%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+5.6% edgemodel 66% · grade A

Why: NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph: -41.7% lift over 309 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (40% usage, .429 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	66%	+5.6%	70%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	14%	+0.9%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Gunnar Henderson, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	1-2	33%	-52.4%
A	5-4	56%	+5.5%
B	5-10	33%	-35.9%

Combined 11-16 · n=27 · ROI -23.9% · avg CLV -1.5 pts · beat close 15%

Matchup

Gunnar Henderson (LHB) vs Zack Wheeler RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Zack Wheeler RHP · season · 92.1 IP · 396 BF

BAA

.194

wOBA

.254

SLG

.342

ISO

.148

WHIP

1.05

HR/9

1.27

BB%

6.3%

31.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.2%

HH%

36.6%

FB%

35.3%

HR/FB%

16.7%

Gunnar Henderson hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	592-2293	.258	.467	.208	104	10.3%	25.6%
vs RHP	434-1603	.271	.499	.228	82	10.1%	25.0%

Pitch-type matchup

Zack Wheeler's arsenal × how Gunnar Henderson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Zack Wheeler throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	40%	95.8	26%	.349
Sinker	17%	95.2	11%	.327
TOPSweeper	14%	83.3	38%	.377
Splitter	10%	87.0	36%	.324
Cutter	10%	91.6	18%	.297
Curveball	9%	80.9	47%	.305

Gunnar Henderson vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	990	19%	.429	95.4
Sinker	575	10%	.339	90.3
TOPSweeper	215	29%	.540	90.5
Splitter	150	33%	.417	93.1
Cutter	282	21%	.362	90.2
Curveball	253	38%	.343	88.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 0.7

Our model66% OVER+5.6% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6

Plate Appearancesavg 4.6

Hitsavg 0.7

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 1.4

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.2

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	8%	—	+473	-0.4	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	66%	+5.6%	-154	-2.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	22%	-1.6%	+320	-1.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	4%	-2.1%	+1500	-0.9	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	14%	+0.9%	+633	-4.4	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	10%	—	+242	-3.3	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	7%	—	+700	-1.8	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	46%	—	+120	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	33%	—	+149	+0.6	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=2,557 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-07-31

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	592-2293	.258	.467	.208	116	25	104	264	25.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	158-690	.229	.391	.162	26	10	22	83	27.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	434-1603	.271	.499	.228	90	15	82	181	25.0%
Last 15 days recent form	10-52	.192	.385	.192	3	2	1	6	32.7%
vs PHI tonight's opponent (full roster)	6-28	.214	.464	.250	2	1	1	2	32.1%
@ Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight's stadium	3093-14030	.220	.356	.135	416	84	439	1364	19.6%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.305

wOBA0.307

delta+0.002 hot

n=515 PA

Spray chart

792 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-wind

Balls in play792

HR rate4.5%

Hard-hit (95+)47%

Avg exit velo90.7 mph

Ground ball47%

Line drive24%

Fly ball22%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

-41.7%significant

n=379 games · 5/70 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-33.0%significant

n=416 games · 5/59 HR when active

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

-24.6%small sample

n=438 games · 0/9 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-28

// TONIGHT

0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning against

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

−42% HR rate when opposing starter's recent fb velo down ≥1 mph.

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphtonight

0.58× HR rate

70 yes / 309 no · 55 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−33%

59 yes / 357 no · 62 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−27%

91 yes / 338 no · 66 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+23%

275 yes / 163 no · 66 HRs

// 24 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−25%

9 yes / 429 no · 66 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+19%

65 yes / 369 no · 66 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−18%

183 yes / 255 no · 66 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−18%

183 yes / 250 no · 65 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+17%

234 yes / 187 no · 60 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−15%

79 yes / 356 no · 66 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+14%

68 yes / 366 no · 66 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+14%

208 yes / 228 no · 66 HRs

Playing at home

+13%

230 yes / 208 no · 66 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+13%

126 yes / 312 no · 66 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−13%

19 yes / 418 no · 66 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

+11%

9 yes / 420 no · 66 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−8%

346 yes / 91 no · 66 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

−7%

304 yes / 130 no · 66 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−5%

171 yes / 258 no · 65 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

neutral

56 yes / 382 no · 66 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

83 yes / 353 no · 66 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

neutral

64 yes / 374 no · 66 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

neutral

39 yes / 399 no · 66 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

198 yes / 240 no · 66 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

neutral

218 yes / 88 no · 42 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 434 no · 66 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 438 no · 66 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	3B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-01	4	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-31	4	1	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 3B · 2 RBI · 1 K
2026-07-29	6	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-5 · 2 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-28	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-27	5	1	0	0	1	2	1-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-07-26	5	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-5 · 1 K
2026-07-25	4	1	0	1	0	3	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 3 K
2026-07-24	5	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-22	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-22	5	1	1	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 1 3B · 2 R · 1 BB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Gunnar Henderson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.