← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +9.4% edge model 65% · grade S
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 65% +9.4% 90% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 7% +0.1% 0% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Nasim Nuñez, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 4-5 44% +26.9% A 1-1 50% -13.0% B 1-3 25% +25.0%
Combined 6-9 · n=15 · ROI +21.1% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Nasim Nuñez (SHB) vs Griffin Jax RHP favors batter favors pitcher Griffin Jax RHP · season · 43.7 IP · 188 BF
Nasim Nuñez hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 49-231 .212 .251 .039 0 12.5% 24.2% vs RHP 35-174 .201 .241 .040 0 11.2% 24.1%
Pitch-type matchup Griffin Jax's arsenal × how Nasim Nuñez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Griffin Jax throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Sweeper 39% 87.9 43% .416 Changeup 21% 92.2 45% .323 Four-Seam 19% 96.8 17% .495 Sinker 14% 96.3 15% .329 Cutter 5% 93.2 21% .294 Curveball 3% 85.7 40% .483
Nasim Nuñez vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Sweeper 70 9% .224 76.6 Changeup 165 24% .256 82.6 Four-Seam 514 19% .325 83.1 Sinker 180 16% .308 86.5 Cutter 79 30% .427 86.9 Curveball 92 30% .349 81.8
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits90% Total Bases50% Home Runs0% Singles70% Doubles10% Triples10% Strikeouts60% Walks30% RBIs40% Runs Scored50% Hits + Runs + RBIs90% Stolen Bases40%
90% 9/10 · L10 · avg 1.3
Our model 65% OVER +9.4% edge S
2 @ARI 06-05 1 @ARI 06-06 1 @SFG 06-08 1 @SFG 06-09 1 @SFG 06-10 0 vSEA 06-13 1 vSEA 06-14 2 vKCR 06-15 2 vKCR 06-16 2 vKCR 06-17
L5 80% 4/5 L10 90% 9/10 L20 75% 15/20 2026 54% 44/82 2025 37% 13/35
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.8 Plate Appearances avg 3.8
5 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 Total Bases avg 1.8
2 1 1 2 1 0 1 2 6 2 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.9
1 0 1 3 1 1 2 0 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-19 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 8% — +650 +0.8 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 65% +9.4% -127 +5.7 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 21% +2.9% +450 +0.8 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 4% -1.2% +2000 +0.9 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 7% +0.1% +1400 +0.0 Sign in
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 51% — +120 +3.8 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — A 34% — +275 +1.7 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -127 +450 +2000 +1400
Price legs
Splits Career n=264 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-17
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
49-231 .212 .251 .039 3 3 0 33 24.2% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
14-57 .246 .281 .035 2 0 0 11 24.6% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
35-174 .201 .241 .040 1 3 0 22 24.1% Last 15 days
recent form
13-34 .382 .529 .147 1 2 0 4 26.5%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.262
wOBA 0.277
delta +0.015 hot
n=262 PA
Spray chart 240 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Griffin Jax's mix Balls in play 240
HR rate 1.7%
Hard-hit (95+) 24%
Avg exit velo 81.8 mph
Ground ball 50%
Line drive 25%
Fly ball 20%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-17 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-3 2026-06-16 4 2 0 2 0 2 0 2-for-2 · 2 3B · 1 RBI · 3 R · 1 SB · 2 BB 2026-06-15 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 2-for-2 · 2 R · 1 BB 2026-06-14 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 K 2026-06-13 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-10 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB · 1 K 2026-06-09 4 1 1 0 0 0 3 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 SB · 3 K 2026-06-08 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-06 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 SB 2026-06-05 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Nasim Nuñez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
