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Michael Busch
1B · LHB · RHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+7.7% edgemodel 66% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (57% usage, .481 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Michael Busch, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 12-11 | 52% | +10.8% |
| A | 9-13 | 41% | -11.5% |
| B | 5-10 | 33% | -36.0% |
Combined 26-34 · n=60 · ROI -9.1% · avg CLV -1.0 pts · beat close 57%
Matchup
Michael Busch (LHB) vs Chase Burns RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Chase Burns's arsenal × how Michael Busch hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.7Plate Appearancesavg 3.7
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.1
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.7
Tonight's lines
2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,003 PA · 2023-04-25 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.331
wOBA0.342
delta+0.011 hot
n=690 PA
Spray chart
844 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph blowing inBalls in play844
HR rate6.9%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo89.9 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive22%
Fly ball36%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+17.9%small sample
n=225 games · 22/109 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +42% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
- +34% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+47%
152 yes / 73 no · 41 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
+42%
60 yes / 166 no · 41 HRs
Playing at home
0.60× HR rate
119 yes / 107 no · 41 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)tonight
+34%
34 yes / 192 no · 41 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+32%
25 yes / 201 no · 41 HRs
// 7 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
0.64× HR rate
14 yes / 211 no · 41 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+20%
92 yes / 134 no · 41 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+18%
109 yes / 116 no · 41 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Michael Busch across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.