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Michael Busch
1B · LHB · RHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Michael Busch, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-6 | 45% | +15.8% |
| A | 5-7 | 42% | -5.0% |
| B | 2-7 | 22% | -39.9% |
Combined 12-20 · n=32 · ROI -7.7% · avg CLV +0.5 pts · beat close 80%
Matchup
Michael Busch (LHB) vs Tarik Skubal favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Tarik Skubal's arsenal × how Michael Busch hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.8Plate Appearancesavg 4.8
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.9
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.1
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=1,827 PA · 2023-04-25 → 2026-08-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.346
wOBA0.343
delta−0.003 due
n=514 PA
Spray chart
734 balls in play since 2025Balls in play734
HR rate7.1%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo90.4 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive22%
Fly ball36%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+17.9%small sample
n=225 games · 22/109 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −40% HR rate when playing at home.
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+47%
152 yes / 73 no · 41 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+42%
60 yes / 166 no · 41 HRs
Playing at hometonight
0.60× HR rate
119 yes / 107 no · 41 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+34%
34 yes / 192 no · 41 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+32%
25 yes / 201 no · 41 HRs
// 7 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
0.64× HR rate
14 yes / 211 no · 41 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+20%
92 yes / 134 no · 41 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+18%
109 yes / 116 no · 41 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Michael Busch across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.