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Michael Busch
1B · LHB · RHP · CHC
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Michael Busch, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 2-1 | 67% | -6.0% |
| A | 1-1 | 50% | -22.5% |
| B | — | — | — |
Combined 3-2 · n=5 · ROI -12.6% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.7
Splits
Career n=1,657 PA · 2023-04-25 → 2026-06-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.363
wOBA0.361
delta−0.002 due
n=344 PA
Spray chart
621 balls in play since 2025Balls in play621
HR rate7.6%
Hard-hit (95+)48%
Avg exit velo91.2 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive22%
Fly ball37%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+17.9%small sample
n=225 games · 22/109 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+47%
152 yes / 73 no · 41 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+42%
60 yes / 166 no · 41 HRs
Playing at home
0.60× HR rate
119 yes / 107 no · 41 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+34%
34 yes / 192 no · 41 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+32%
25 yes / 201 no · 41 HRs
// 7 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
0.64× HR rate
14 yes / 211 no · 41 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+20%
92 yes / 134 no · 41 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+18%
109 yes / 116 no · 41 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Michael Busch across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.