← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +7.8% edge model 67% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Changeup (24% usage, .365 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 67% +7.8% 30% CAUTION Home Runs OVER 0.5 15% +4.8% 10% CAUTION
Matchup Victor Mesa Jr. (LHB) vs Michael Wacha RHP favors batter favors pitcher Michael Wacha RHP · season · 97.9 IP · 421 BF
Victor Mesa Jr. hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 8-47 .170 .298 .128 2 14.5% 27.7% vs RHP 7-39 .179 .333 .154 2 15.2% 28.2%
Pitch-type matchup Michael Wacha's arsenal × how Victor Mesa Jr. hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Michael Wacha throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 28% 93.0 16% .389 TOP Changeup24% 80.0 28% .297 Cutter 15% 88.4 15% .372 Sinker 14% 93.1 11% .396 Slider 11% 84.8 28% .372 Curveball 8% 75.4 31% .344
Victor Mesa Jr. vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 42 17% .332 97.9 TOP Changeup14 29% .365 96.7 Cutter 17 10% .135 64.7 Sinker 24 17% .319 88.9 Slider 24 25% .625 87.7 Curveball 12 36% .326 87.7
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits30% Total Bases10% Home Runs10% Singles30% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts60% Walks50% RBIs10% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs40% Stolen Bases0%
30% 3/10 · L10 · avg 0.4
Our model 67% OVER +7.8% edge A
0 vDET 06-02 0 vDET 06-03 0 @MIA 06-05 1 @MIA 06-06 1 @MIA 06-07 0 vBOS 06-08 0 @LAA 06-13 2 @LAA 06-14 0 @LAD 06-17 0 vWSN 06-20
L5 20% 1/5 L10 30% 3/10 L20 45% 9/20 2026 50% 9/18 2025 38% 5/13
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.2 Plate Appearances avg 3.2
3 3 3 4 3 1 4 4 3 4 Total Bases avg 0.7
0 0 0 1 1 0 0 5 0 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.7
1 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 8% — +425 +1.7 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 67% +7.8% -147 +2.4 Sign in 1.5 OVER A 26% +7.3% +400 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% +0.1% +2000 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER B 15% +4.8% +891 +0.0 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 11% — +200 +4.0 — 1.5 — PASS 7% — +700 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 50% — +130 +0.0 — 1.5 — B 13% — +1000 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — B 40% — +180 +1.2 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -147 +400 +2000 +891
Price legs
Splits Career n=55 PA · 2026-05-25 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
8-47 .170 .298 .128 0 0 2 8 27.7% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
1-8 .125 .125 .000 0 0 0 1 25.0% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
7-39 .179 .333 .154 0 0 2 7 28.2% Last 15 days
recent form
3-15 .200 .400 .200 0 0 1 4 26.7% @ Tropicana Field
tonight's stadium
0-1600 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 374 30.6%
Spray chart 62 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Michael Wacha's mix Balls in play 62
HR rate 4.8%
Hard-hit (95+) 41%
Avg exit velo 86.4 mph
Ground ball 39%
Line drive 26%
Fly ball 26%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-20 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-17 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-2 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-14 4 2 0 0 1 1 0 2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB 2026-06-13 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-08 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-0 · 1 BB 2026-06-07 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-3 · 2 K 2026-06-06 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-05 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-03 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-02 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Victor Mesa Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
