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Stadium
Great American Ball Park
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +8.8% edge model 74% · grade S
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 74% +8.8% 50% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Sal Frelick, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 0-1 0% -100.0% A 1-4 20% -66.8% B — — —
Combined 1-5 · n=6 · ROI -72.4% · avg CLV +0.2 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup Sal Frelick (LHB) vs Brady Singer RHP favors batter favors pitcher Brady Singer RHP · season · 78.4 IP · 337 BF
Sal Frelick hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 399-1556 .256 .355 .099 24 9.1% 15.3% vs RHP 311-1180 .264 .370 .107 20 9.4% 15.2%
Pitch-type matchup Brady Singer's arsenal × how Sal Frelick hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Brady Singer throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Sinker 42% 91.9 13% .409 Slider 29% 82.5 26% .345 Sweeper 11% 81.5 34% .374 Four-Seam 9% 91.2 17% .449 Cutter 8% 87.5 21% .389
Sal Frelick vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Sinker 482 5% .279 84.2 Slider 354 13% .326 82.3 Sweeper 210 25% .226 82.7 Four-Seam 1208 8% .289 86.4 Cutter 264 11% .244 84.5
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases30% Home Runs0% Singles50% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts20% Walks10% RBIs30% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases0%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 0.8
Our model 74% OVER +8.8% edge S
0 @OAK 06-08 1 @OAK 06-09 2 @OAK 06-10 1 vPHI 06-12 0 vPHI 06-13 0 vCLE 06-16 2 vCLE 06-17 0 @ATL 06-19 0 @ATL 06-20 2 @ATL 06-21
L5 40% 2/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 50% 10/20 2026 57% 49/86 2025 71% 109/154
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 2.7 Plate Appearances avg 2.7
1 4 4 1 5 1 4 1 1 5 Total Bases avg 1.0
0 1 2 1 0 0 3 0 0 3 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.2
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 11% — +450 +0.8 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 74% +8.8% -189 -0.4 Sign in 1.5 OVER B 31% +3.1% +240 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 7% -1.8% +1100 -1.7 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 UNDER PASS 91% — -2800 +0.0 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 7% — +190 +0.8 — 1.5 — PASS 3% — +700 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 60% — -120 +2.6 — 1.5 — PASS 16% — +450 +0.0 —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 28% — -137 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — B 42% — +170 -0.7 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -189 +240 +1100 -2800
Price legs
Splits Career n=1,712 PA · 2023-07-22 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
399-1556 .256 .355 .099 66 8 24 156 15.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
88-376 .234 .309 .074 16 0 4 33 15.7% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
311-1180 .264 .370 .107 50 8 20 123 15.2% Last 15 days
recent form
6-22 .273 .318 .045 1 0 0 2 9.1% vs Brady Singer
tonight's starting pitcher
5-11 .455 .727 .273 1 1 0 0 0.0% vs CIN
tonight's opponent (full roster)
16-43 .372 .512 .140 1 1 1 3 7.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.274
wOBA 0.297
delta +0.023 hot
n=268 PA
Spray chart 703 balls in play since 2025 · wind 12 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Brady Singer's mix Balls in play 703
HR rate 2.3%
Hard-hit (95+) 30%
Avg exit velo 86.0 mph
Ground ball 49%
Line drive 22%
Fly ball 19%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-5 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-19 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-17 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-16 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-13 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 0-for-3 · 1 R · 2 BB 2026-06-12 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-1 2026-06-10 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 2026-06-09 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-08 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Sal Frelick across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
