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Vinnie Pasquantino
1B · LHB · LHP · KCR
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+6.0% edgemodel 19% · grade A
Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +26.8% lift over 127 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (36% usage, .365 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Vinnie Pasquantino, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-2 | 60% | -9.7% |
| A | 3-4 | 43% | -21.0% |
| B | 4-2 | 67% | +209.8% |
Combined 10-8 · n=18 · ROI +59.1% · avg CLV -0.1 pts · beat close 31%
Matchup
Vinnie Pasquantino (LHB) vs Lake Bachar RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Lake Bachar's arsenal × how Vinnie Pasquantino hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.8
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=467 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-09-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.323
wOBA0.308
delta−0.015 due
n=462 PA
Spray chart
868 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph blowing outBalls in play868
HR rate5.3%
Hard-hit (95+)44%
Avg exit velo90.8 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive25%
Fly ball30%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+26.8%significant
n=253 games · 23/127 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +89% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
1.89× HR rate
192 yes / 60 no · 40 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
1.50× HR rate
83 yes / 170 no · 40 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+27%
127 yes / 126 no · 40 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−22%
15 yes / 237 no · 40 HRs
// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−17%
27 yes / 225 no · 40 HRs
Playing at home
−9%
128 yes / 125 no · 40 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−8%
29 yes / 223 no · 40 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
79 yes / 174 no · 40 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Vinnie Pasquantino across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.