← BACK TO SLATE
Isaac Collins
LF · SHB · RHP · KCR
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+12.1% edgemodel 69% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Cutter (39% usage, .480 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Isaac Collins, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-13 | 38% | -14.8% |
| A | 5-15 | 25% | -58.6% |
| B | 5-8 | 38% | -36.3% |
Combined 18-36 · n=54 · ROI -36.2% · avg CLV +0.5 pts · beat close 57%
Matchup
Isaac Collins (SHB) vs Ryan Johnson RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Ryan Johnson's arsenal × how Isaac Collins hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.5Plate Appearancesavg 3.5
Hitsavg 0.4
Singlesavg 0.2
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 0.6
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.4
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-08-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=415 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-08-14
xStats luck
xwOBA0.294
wOBA0.294
deltaneutral
n=415 PA
Spray chart
567 balls in play since 2025Balls in play567
HR rate2.8%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo87.5 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive25%
Fly ball26%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Isaac Collins across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.