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Hits OVER 0.5 +5.7% edge model 71% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Curveball (16% usage, .393 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 71% +5.7% 60% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 15% +4.2% 20% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Michael Massey, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 5-7 42% +53.9% A 5-13 28% -27.7% B 3-17 15% -76.5%
Combined 13-37 · n=50 · ROI -27.6% · avg CLV +0.2 pts · beat close 48%
Matchup Michael Massey (LHB) vs Reid Detmers LHP favors batter favors pitcher Reid Detmers LHP · season · 138.4 IP · 595 BF
Michael Massey hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 344-1414 .243 .385 .142 41 5.1% 19.1% vs LHP 69-276 .250 .377 .127 5 4.2% 25.0%
Pitch-type matchup Reid Detmers's arsenal × how Michael Massey hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Reid Detmers throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 44% 94.9 23% .360 Slider 31% 87.3 35% .384 TOP Curveball16% 73.3 26% .286 Changeup 6% 83.4 28% .399 Sinker 3% 94.4 7% .279 Pitchout 0% 85.4 — —
Michael Massey vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 551 16% .276 88.4 Slider 168 18% .303 87.5 TOP Curveball118 11% .393 89.3 Changeup 220 18% .263 85.5 Sinker 152 15% .338 90.7 Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases30% Home Runs20% Singles60% Doubles0% Triples10% Strikeouts50% Walks0% RBIs20% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases0%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 1.1
Our model 71% OVER +5.7% edge A
0 vMIN 08-06 0 vCHC 08-07 1 vCHC 08-08 2 vCHC 08-09 1 @LAD 08-10 0 @LAD 08-11 0 @LAD 08-12 3 @LAA 08-14 1 @LAA 08-15 3 @LAA 08-16
L5 60% 3/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 60% 12/20 2026 59% 65/110 2025 59% 48/82
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.6 Plate Appearances avg 3.6
4 4 4 4 4 4 1 4 3 4 Total Bases avg 1.9
0 0 1 4 1 0 0 6 1 6 Home Runs avg 0.2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Strikeouts avg 0.9
1 0 0 0 3 3 1 1 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-08-17 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 35% — -137 +0.0 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-185 Hits OVER 1.5+280 Hits OVER 2.5+1100 Home Runs OVER 0.5+850
Price legs
Splits Career n=1,490 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-12
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
344-1414 .243 .385 .142 68 5 41 76 19.1% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
69-276 .250 .377 .127 16 2 5 12 25.0% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
275-1138 .242 .388 .146 52 3 36 64 17.7% Last 15 days
recent form
8-40 .200 .350 .150 1 1 1 0 25.0% vs Reid Detmers
tonight's starting pitcher
2-7 .286 .286 .000 0 0 0 0 28.6% vs LAA
tonight's opponent (full roster)
8-25 .320 .320 .000 0 0 0 1 24.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.296
wOBA 0.315
delta +0.019 hot
n=333 PA
Spray chart 504 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Reid Detmers's mix Balls in play 504
HR rate 2.6%
Hard-hit (95+) 39%
Avg exit velo 88.3 mph
Ground ball 36%
Line drive 25%
Fly ball 32%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-08-14 4 3 0 0 1 0 1 3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-08-12 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-08-11 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-4 · 3 K 2026-08-10 4 1 0 0 0 0 3 1-for-4 · 1 R · 3 K 2026-08-09 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 3B 2026-08-08 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 R 2026-08-07 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 2026-08-06 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-08-05 3 2 0 0 1 0 1 2-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 K 2026-08-04 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Michael Massey across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.