Joey Ortiz

SS · RHB · RHP · MIL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

PHI

Starter

Aaron Nola (RHP)

Stadium

Citizens Bank Park

Model HR%

7.7%

Model Hits%

66.5%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Joey Ortiz, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	9-5	64%	+20.1%
A	6-3	67%	+77.0%
B	1-6	14%	-42.9%

Combined 16-14 · n=30 · ROI +22.5% · avg CLV -4.7 pts · beat close 35%

Matchup

Joey Ortiz (RHB) vs Aaron Nola RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Aaron Nola RHP · season · 170.9 IP · 735 BF

BAA

.260

wOBA

.307

SLG

.469

ISO

.208

WHIP

1.39

HR/9

1.84

BB%

8.6%

23.5%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.8%

HH%

39.6%

FB%

33.8%

HR/FB%

23.3%

Joey Ortiz hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	331-1424	.232	.350	.118	28	9.0%	19.8%
vs RHP	222-968	.229	.338	.108	18	8.9%	18.7%

Pitch-type matchup

Aaron Nola's arsenal × how Joey Ortiz hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Aaron Nola throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPKnuckle Curve	30%	78.2	37%	.363
Four-Seam	29%	91.8	13%	.445
Sinker	18%	90.8	8%	.434
Changeup	15%	84.9	26%	.303
Cutter	8%	86.1	25%	.422

Joey Ortiz vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPKnuckle Curve	39	19%	.366	83.5
Four-Seam	801	16%	.314	87.6
Sinker	537	8%	.287	84.8
Changeup	154	27%	.255	78.8
Cutter	172	7%	.319	85.1

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.4

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1

Plate Appearancesavg 4.1

Hitsavg 1.4

Singlesavg 1.1

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 2.0

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.1

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-09-23 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	91%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=1,564 PA · 2023-04-27 → 2026-09-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	331-1424	.232	.350	.118	62	11	28	140	19.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	109-456	.239	.377	.138	21	6	10	45	22.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	222-968	.229	.338	.108	41	5	18	95	18.7%
Last 15 days recent form	14-39	.359	.513	.154	1	1	1	2	28.2%
vs Aaron Nola tonight's starting pitcher	1-8	.125	.125	.000	0	0	0	0	12.5%
vs PHI tonight's opponent (full roster)	9-45	.200	.333	.133	1	1	1	3	15.6%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.284

wOBA0.304

delta+0.020 hot

n=423 PA

Spray chart

733 balls in play since 2025· wind 10 mph blowing in

Balls in play733

HR rate2.2%

Hard-hit (95+)36%

Avg exit velo86.2 mph

Ground ball47%

Line drive23%

Fly ball20%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-20	4	0	0	0	0	0	4	0-for-4 · 4 K
2026-09-19	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	1-for-3 · 1 3B · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-18	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-09-17	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 2 R · 1 BB
2026-09-16	4	1	0	0	0	0	3	1-for-4 · 1 R · 3 K
2026-09-15	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	3-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI
2026-09-13	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-11	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	4-for-5 · 2 R
2026-09-09	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-09-08	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Joey Ortiz across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.